My High Dividend Stocks Blog

My High Dividend Stocks
This is my high dividend stocks site where I help site members find high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

The practical significance of book value. Plus 15 book values of stocks mention on this blog.

There is no hard fast rule for price to book value ratios, but lower is definitely better.  I like the ratio too be less than 2.0.  Here is a list of many of the high dividend stocks mentioned on this blog with their most recent price, book value (BV)/share, Price/BV ratio, and dividend yield.  The results might surprise you.  Most of the book values per share are as of December 21st, 2010 unless otherwise noted.

Ticker              Price                BV/share         P/BV   Div. yield

=================================================

AGNC            $28.58             $24.24             1.18     19.51%

SB                   $8.26               $3.86               2.14     6.79%

SDRL              $34.42             $9.78               3.52     5.6%

TNH                $108.96           $11.35             9.6       4.94%

EXC                $39.97             $20.45             1.95     5.13%

FE                   $37.90             $28.02             1.35     5.99%

FRO                $22.59             $9.57               2.36     1.62%

MCD               $76.66             $13.55             5.66     3.27%

NGG               $48.80             $12.87 (ttm)    3.79     4.28%

PM                  $65.90             $1.90               34.68   4.01%

PCL                 $42.13             $8.47               4.97     3.96%

TNK                $10.15             $10.46             0.97     9.02%

VOD               $28.85             $17.06 (ttm)    1.69     3.18%

WIN                $12.41             $1.77               7.01     7.73%

T                      $30.27             $18.80             1.61     6.11%

Excelon (EXC), First Energy (FE), Teekay Tankers (TNK), and AT&T (T) warrant further examination for their high dividend yields and low price/book value ratios.

Philip Morris (PM) has an extremely high price/book value ratio which needs to be examined to make sure it’s not some weird artifact of how Google Finance and Morningstar display financial information.

Here is quick excerpt for Chapter 42 of Security Analysis 2nd edition on the practical significance of book value.

* * * * * * *

Practical Significance of Book Value. The book value of a common stock was originally the most important element in its financial exhibit. It was supposed to show “the value” of the shares in the same way as a merchant’s balance sheet shows him the value of his business. This idea has almost completely disappeared from the financial horizon. The value of a company’s assets as carried in its balance sheet has lost practically all its significance. This change arose from the fact, first, that the value of the fixed assets, as stated, frequently bore no relationship to the actual cost and, secondly, that in an even larger proportion of cases these values bore no relationship to the figure at which they would be sold or the figure which would be justified by the earnings. The practice of inflating the book value of the fixed property is giving way to the opposite artifice of cutting it down to nothing in order to avoid depreciation charges, but both have the same consequence of depriving the book-value figures of any real significance. It is a bit strange, like a quaint survival from the past, that the leading statistical services still maintain the old procedure of calculating the book value per share of common stock from many, perhaps most, balance sheets that they publish.

* * * * * * *

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

A tale of two book values (AGNC and SB).

I have been concentrating on analyzing dividend records and determining the earning power of various high dividend stocks since August 2010.  But there is another major component of high dividend stock analysis: balance sheet analysis.  Today I will start a series of blog posts covering balance sheet analysis.  I will focus my efforts mostly upon American Capital Agency Corp (AGNC) and Safe Bulkers (SB).

Today I will start examining the book values of AGNC and SB.  It takes some digging in the annual reports to get accurate numbers.

AGNC book value as of December 31st, 2010 is $24.24 per share:

            Tangible assets: $14,476 M (mostly agency securities)

            Intangible assets: none

            Preferred stock: none

            Bonds: none

Minus  Total liabilities: $12,904 M (mostly repurchase agreements)

Equals shareholder equity: $1,572 M

Book value = equity / number of shares = $1,572 M / 64.856 M = a book value of $24.24 per share.

The question for AGNC becomes – How were the prices of the agency securities determined?  Mortgage backed securities are not exactly known for their price transparency.  They are somewhat toxic.  That is why the big banks off loaded them to the Federal Reserve during the financial panic of 2008-2009 and received US treasury bonds in return.  The guarantees from Fannie and Freddie will be revoked in the future due to massive US budget deficits.  I don’t trust the stability of the agency securities prices for three reasons and I will use their own words from their risk factors against them:

1) a continued depression in the housing/mortgage market hurts the value of AGNC’s agency securities.

Continued adverse developments in the broader residential mortgage market may adversely affect the value of the agency securities in which we invest.

Since 2008, the residential mortgage market in the United States has experienced a variety of unprecedented difficulties and changed economic conditions, including defaults, credit losses and liquidity concerns. Many of these conditions are expected to continue in 2011 and beyond. Certain commercial banks, investment banks and insurance companies announced extensive losses from exposure to the residential mortgage market. These losses reduced financial industry capital, leading to reduced liquidity for some institutions. These factors have impacted investor perception of the risk associated with real estate related assets, including agency securities and other high-quality residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”) assets. As a result, values for RMBS assets, including some agency securities and other AAA-rated RMBS assets, have experienced a certain amount of volatility. Further increased volatility and deterioration in the broader residential mortgage and RMBS markets may adversely affect the performance and market value of our agency securities.

We invest exclusively in agency securities (other than for hedging purposes) and rely on our agency securities as collateral for our financings. Any decline in their value, or perceived market uncertainty about their value, would likely make it difficult for us to obtain financing on favorable terms or at all, or maintain our compliance with terms of any financing arrangements already in place. Substantially all of the agency securities we invest in are classified for accounting purposes as available-for-sale. All assets classified as available-for-sale are reported at fair value with unrealized gains and losses excluded from earnings and reported as a separate component of stockholders’ equity. Agency securities that we invest in that are classified as trading securities are reported at fair value, with unrealized gains and losses included in current income. As a result, a decline in fair values may reduce the book value of our assets. Moreover, if the decline in fair value of an available-for-sale security is other-than-temporarily impaired, such decline will reduce earnings. If market conditions result in a decline in the fair value of our agency securities, our financial position and results of operations could be adversely affected.

2) If the Federal Reserve sells enough agency securities, then that will hurt the value of AGNC’s securities (not likely anytime soon)

Federal Reserve programs to purchase securities could have an adverse impact on the agency securities in which we invest.

Beginning in November 2008, the Federal Reserve initiated a program to purchase direct obligations of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Bank and agency securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. In total, this program resulted in the Federal Reserve purchasing $300 billion of direct obligations and $1.75 trillion of agency securities with the purchase program ending in the first quarter of 2010. One of the effects of this program has been to increase competition for available direct obligations and agency securities, with the result being an increase in pricing of such securities. The Federal Reserve may hold the direct obligations and agency mortgage securities to maturity or may sell them on the open market. Sales by the Federal Reserve of the direct obligations or agency mortgage securities that it currently holds may reduce the market price of such securities. Reductions in the market price of agency mortgage securities may negatively impact our book value.

In addition, the Federal Reserve initiated a program in November 2010 to purchase up to $600 billion of long-term U.S. Treasury securities by mid-2011 as part of its continuing effort to help stimulate the economy by reducing mortgage and interest rates. Such action could negatively affect our income or our net book value by impacting interest rate levels and the spread between mortgage rates and other interest rates. Thus, these actions could reduce the yields on assets that we are targeting for purchase, thereby reducing our net interest spreads. Alternatively, the Federal Reserve’s actions may not have the intended impact and could create inflation and higher interest rates. This could negatively impact our net book value or our funding cost.

3) Interest rates rise (this is likely as soon as the end of QE 2)

Because we invest in fixed-rate securities, an increase in interest rates on our borrowings may adversely affect our book value or our net interest income.

Increases in interest rates may negatively affect the market value of our agency securities. Any fixed-rate securities we invest in generally will be more negatively affected by these increases than adjustable-rate securities. In accordance with GAAP, we are required to reduce our stockholders’ equity, or book value, by the amount of any decrease in the fair value of our agency securities that are classified as available-for-sale.

Reductions in stockholders’ equity could decrease the amounts we may borrow to purchase additional agency securities, which may restrict our ability to increase our net income. Furthermore, if our funding costs are rising while our interest income is fixed, our net interest income will contract and could become negative.

Safe Bulkers (SB) book value as of December 31st, 2010 is $3.71 per share:

Tangible assets: $805.372 M (mostly 16 dry bulk ships)

Intangible assets: none

Preferred stock: none

Bonds: none

Minus  Total liabilities: $561.239 M (mostly loans for ship purchases)

Equals shareholder equity: $244.133 M

Book value = equity / number of shares = $244.133 M / 65.88 M = a book value of $3.71 per share.  I don’t see any risk factors in Safe Bulkers annual report that could affect their book value.  The prices of ships are easy to determine and their prices are very visible to those who interact with ship brokers.

* * * * * * *

Chapter 42

BALANCE-SHEET ANALYSIS.

SIGNIFICANCE OF BOOK VALUE

ON NUMEROUS OCCASIONS prior to this point we have expressed our conviction that the balance sheet deserves more attention than Wall Street has been willing to accord it for many years past. By way of introduction to this section of our work, let us list five types of information and guidance that the investor may derive from a study of the balance sheet:

1. It shows how much capital is invested in the business.

2. It reveals the ease or stringency of the company’s financial condition, i.e.,

the working-capital position.

3. It contains the details of the capitalization structure.

4. It provides an important check upon the validity of the reported earnings.

5. It supplies the basis for analyzing the sources of income.

In dealing with the first of these functions of the balance sheet, we shall begin by presenting certain definitions. The book value of a stock is the value of the assets applicable thereto as shown in the balance sheet.  It is customary to restrict this value to the tangible assets, i.e., to eliminate from the calculation such items as good-will, trade names, patents, franchises, leaseholds. The book value is also referred to as the “asset value,” and sometimes as the “tangible-asset value,” to make clear that intangibles are not included. In the case of common stocks, it is also frequently termed the “equity.”

Computation of Book Value. The book value per share of a common stock is found by adding up all the tangible assets, subtracting all liabilities and stock issues ahead of the common and then dividing by the number of shares.

In many cases the following formula will be found to furnish a short cut to the answer:

= (Common Stock + Surplus Items – Intangibles) / Number of shares outstanding

By Surplus Items are meant not only items clearly marked as surplus but also premiums on capital stock and such reserves as are really part of the surplus. This would include, for example, reserves for preferred-stock retirement, for plant improvement, and for contingencies (unless known to be actually needed). Reserves of this character may be termed “Voluntary Reserves.”

* * * * * * *

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

Is Safe Bulkers still a high dividend stock buy after the public offering of 5 million new shares?

Safe Bulkers (SB) announced yesterday that they are offering 5 million shares for sale to the public for ship purchases and repayment of debt.  The total offer could increase the number of total shares from 65.88 million to 71.63 million (5 m for the offer and 750k for the underwriters).  This is a 8.7% increase in the number of shares.

Prior to the public offering announcement Safe Bulkers was trading for around $9.26.  After the announcement the price dropped to $8.32 this morning (-10.15%).  The company is making the offering at a price of $8.40.  This will bring in an additional $42 million to the company’s coffers.

Is Safe Bulkers still an excellent high dividend stock to buy?  Yes, its high dividend is still safe, it has a 5 year average earning power of $1.50 per share, and its balance sheet is strong.

The company has been paying a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share.  A $0.60 annual dividend is easily affordable.  SB’s current dividend yield is 7.2% ($0.60/$8.32).  The company’s 5 year average earnings were $1.50 (this excludes gains from ship sales and includes the new shares being offered).  Its dividend payout ratio is less than 50%.  No problem.

I’d like to examine Safe Bulkers earning power adjusted for these new shares and also excluding the gains from ship sales in 2006, 2007, and 2010.  These numbers can be found or calculated from the company’s latest annual report for 2010.

                        Net inc. avail

            EPS     (- ship sales)    Adj. EPS

2006    $1.78   $60.209 M       $0.84

2007    $3.84   $96.840 M       $1.35

2008    $2.19   $119.211 M     $1.66

2009    $3.03   $165.41 M       $2.31

2010    $1.73   $94.448 M       $1.32

Safe Bulkers has an adjusted 5 year average EPS of $1.50 (excluding gains from ship sales and including the new offering of shares).  I exclude ship sales because they are not a reoccurring source of revenue.

SB is trading at 5.5 times the 5 year average earnings.  That is still an extreme value.  I look to buy common stocks with high dividends and a market price well below 12 times average earnings.  If SB were valued like many other stocks at 12 times average earnings, then it would sell for $18.00.  It would sell for $30.00 if it were valued at 20 times average earnings, but that where the stock would become a speculative buy.

The public offering does not damage Safe Bulkers balance sheet which was strong before.

I have recommended in the past that Safe Bulkers was a buy below $8.00.  Any significant market correction would take it down below $8.00.  I believe that it is a buy all the way up to $10.00 at its current dividend rate.  The yield would be 6% at $10.00.  But I think you can get it for under $8.00 if you are patient.

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

Here is the press release:

Image001

 

Apr 12, 2011 09:00 ET

Safe Bulkers, Inc. Announces Pricing of Its Public Offering of Common Stock

ATHENS, GREECE--(Marketwire - April 12, 2011) - Safe Bulkers, Inc. (the "Company") (NYSE: SB), an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services, announced today that its public offering of 5,000,000 shares of common stock (the "Public Offering") was priced at $8.40 per share. The gross proceeds from the Public Offering before the underwriting discount and other offering expenses are expected to be approximately $42 million.

The Company has also granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 750,000 shares of the common stock.

The Company plans to use the net proceeds of the Public Offering for vessel acquisitions, capital expenditures and for other general corporate purposes, including repayment of indebtedness.

Morgan Stanley and BofA Merrill Lynch are acting as joint book-running managers and Evercore Partners is acting as co-manager of the Public Offering, which is being made under an effective shelf registration statement.

The Public Offering is being made only by means of a prospectus supplement and accompanying base prospectus. A preliminary prospectus supplement and accompanying base prospectus relating to the Public Offering has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and is available at the SEC's website at http://www.sec.gov. When available, the final prospectus supplement and accompanying base prospectus relating to the Public Offering may be obtained from Morgan Stanley, 180 Varick Street, 2nd Floor, New York, NY 10014, telephone: 1-866-718-1649, Attn: Prospectus Department, email: prospectus@morganstanley.com, or BofA Merrill Lynch, 4 World Financial Center, New York, NY 10080, Attn: Prospectus Department, email: dg.prospectus_requests@baml.com.

The offering is subject to customary closing conditions.

This release shall not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction.

About Safe Bulkers, Inc.

The Company is an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services, transporting bulk cargoes, particularly coal, grain and iron ore, along worldwide shipping routes for some of the world's largest users of such services. The Company's common stock is listed on the NYSE, where it trades under the symbol "SB". The Company maintains its offices at 30-32 Avenue Karamanli, P.O. Box 70837, 16605 Voula, Athens, Greece.

Link to the press release: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Safe-Bulkers-Inc-Announces-Pricing-of-Its-Public-Offering-of-Common-Stock-NYSE-SB-1426274.htm

Safe Bulkers, Inc. Announces the Acquisition of Two Newbuild Panamax-Class Drybulk Vessels.

Safe Bulkers, Inc. (NYSE: SB), an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services, announced today that it has entered into shipbuilding contracts for the construction of two Japanese-built, drybulk Panamax-class vessels at attractive prices, with an expected delivery date in the first half of 2014.

Panamax-class drybulk vessels are sized to fit through the Panama Canal.  Safe Bulkers owns 4 Panamax-class vessels right now out of 16 ships total.  Those four ships average a daily charter rate of about $24,500.  According to their annual report these four ships are chartered through 2013 with some of the contract extending through 2015.  They were built between 2003 and 2005, so they are some of the oldest ships in Safe Bulkers fleet.

Safe Bulkers (SB) stock price has been on a steady rise since July 2010.  The stock has not seen a significant correction in 10 months.  Wait for the correction and a buying opportunity will present itself.

Buy Safe Bulkers below $8.00 per share.  It is trading for $9.37 as I write this.  See this 3 year stock chart to see what I’m talking about.

Image001

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SB&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p63466243318

Safe Bulkers, Inc. Announces the Acquisition of Two Newbuild Panamax-Class Drybulk Vessels

Safe Bulkers, Inc. (the "Company") (NYSE: SB), an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services, announced today that it has entered into shipbuilding contracts for the construction of two Japanese-built, drybulk Panamax-class vessels at attractive prices, with an expected delivery date in the first half of 2014.

Assuming the delivery of all of the Company's newbuilds on order, upon delivery of these two newbuild vessels in the first half of 2014, the Company's fleet will consist of 27 vessels with deadweight capacity of approximately 2.5 million tons.

Dr. Loukas Barmparis, President of the Company, said: "These new acquisitions are in line with our long term strategy to place orders at attractive prices in the right point of the cycle, seeking to renew and expand our fleet. We intend to offer our clients fuel efficient, shallow drafted, new generation designed vessels able to compete even in relatively weak markets. We believe that these acquisitions will be accretive to our earnings."

Here is the link to the original article: http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/yb/157706195 .

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

A Good High Dividend Stock in a Bad Neighborhood.

It's nice to see that I've found a great high dividend stock before Jim Cramer.  A caller asked him about Safe Bulkers the other day and Cramer responded that his didn't know the stock.  Here is what Cramer had to say after he learned more about Safe Bulkers (SB).
 
 Safe Bulkers (SB) has 16 dry bulk vessels and offers a 6.3% dividend. Cramer thinks the dividend is safe, since earnings are high enough to cover the dividend, the yield won't be raised again until 2012. SB is a good house in not such a good neighborhood, since the surplus of ships is an issue for the industry. With a 14% climb in just two weeks, Cramer might consider the stock an interesting buy on a pullback, but not at its current level.

 

 
I agree with Cramer that you should consider buying Safe Bulkers when it is in the low $8.00 to $7.00 range.  Any sizable market pullback should knock it down to that price range.  Here is the link to all the articles I've written on Safe Bulkers: http://www.myhighdividendstocks.com/category/high-dividend-stocks/sb.  I go into the issues in more detail than Cramer had time to expound upon on his show.
 
Disclosure: I don't own Safe Bulkers (SB) right now.  I'm waiting for a pullback.
 
Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocs.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and stong balance sheets.
 
Be seeing you!

TIP OF THE WEEK - An Extremely Useful Way to Examine 5 Years of a Company's Financials in Less Than Thirty Seconds.

An Extremely Useful Way to Examine 5 Years of a Company’s Financials in Less Than Thirty Seconds.

Jason Brizic

Apr. 1, 2011

You like to do your own investment analysis or you like to dig deeper than the articles you read on a company.  But you are frustrated with all the free investing services only showing the current financials or just three years.  You are a high dividend stock investor, so three years is just not good enough.  You want at least five years worth of financials without a lot of hassle. 

I’ll show you how to easily access five years worth of financials on any exchange listed stock for free and without registration.

You will be able to quickly view five years worth of income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements with Morningstar’s stock tool. 

Go to www.morningstar.com and type your desired stock ticker symbol into the Quote box at the top of the screen.  Then chose the Financials tab and you are there.  That was easy!

You can choose annual or quarterly views.  You can chose five years for free and ten years if you are a paid premium member.  The free info exceeds what I’ve seen on other sites like Google Finance, which only shows three years of financials.  Looking at five years of financials will put you ahead of many investors who are really just speculating.  You can even change the numbers to percentages in a single click.

Here are the financials for one of my favorite high dividend stocks, Safe Bulkers (SB):

http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=SB&region=USA&culture=en-US

For more tips, go here:

http://www.myhighdividendstocks.com/category/tip-of-the-week

Examples of Speculative and Investment Common Stocks You've Got to See.

The second edition of Security Analysis provided several examples of speculative and investment common stocks.  The examples are so illustrative, but they are from 1940.  I wanted to bring the text of this section of the book into this blog with examples from several of the stocks that I have blogged about on www.myhighdividendstocks.com .

I chose the following stocks for examples: Goldcorp (GG), Proctor & Gamble (PG), American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC), Seadrill Limited (SDRL), Safe Bulkers (SB), and AT&T.  Let me tell you why I chose these stocks.  I wanted to also include Terra Nitrogen (TNH), but the results table would have been too unreadable.

Goldcorp (GG)  I used to own Goldcorp when it was priced in the high teens and twenties.  I wanted to revisit it because it is also in many gold mining stock funds such as FSAGX.  I currently own FSAGX in my 401(k) account and I’m considering selling it.  You will see why momentarily.

Proctor & Gamble (PG)  This stock is often written about in dividend aristocrat articles.  It pays a modest dividend and grows its dividend annually like clockwork.  Many people watch this dividend stock.

American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC)  I’ve included it because I have written many articles on this ultra-high dividend stock.  I don’t like it because its earnings can’t support the current dividend payout.  It balance sheet is horrible like all financial institutions (e.g. banks).

Seadrill Limited (SDRL)  This stock turned up on one of my high dividend stock screens and warrants further investigation to determine if it is speculative or investment grade.

Safe Bulkers (SB)  I love this high dividend stock with earning power and a strong balance sheet.  You will see why in moments.

AT&T (T)  I pays almost a 6% dividend and it is and dividend aristocrat.  Many eyes are on this one so I want to know at what price is it a value buy.

* * * * * * *

Examples of Speculative and Investment Common Stocks.  Our definition of an investment basis for common-stock purchases is a variance with the Wall Street practice in respect to common stocks of high rating.  For such issues a price of considerably more than 20 times average earnings is held to be warranted, and furthermore these stocks are designated as “investment issues” regardless of the price at which they sell.  According to our view, the high prices paid for “the best common stocks” make these purchases essentially speculative, because they require future growth to justify them.  Hence common-stock investment operations, as we define them, will occupy a middle ground in the market, lying between low-price issues that are speculative because of doubtful quality and well-entrenched issues that are speculative, none the less, because of their high price.

* * * * * * *

Image001

There were three groups of examples in Security Analysis.  Group A were common stocks speculative in December 1938 because of their high price (figures were adjusted to reflect changes in capitalization).  The companies in group A were: General Electric, Coca Cola, and Johns-Manville.  Proctor & Gamble and AT&T sort of fit into the Group A category.

Group B were common stocks speculative in December 1938 because of their irregular record.  Group B in 1938 was comprised of the following companies: Goodyear Tire and Rubber, Simmons, and Youngstown Sheet and Tube.  American Capital Agency Corp., Seadrill Limited and Goldcorp are definitely Group B.  Goldcorp also has a poor divided and a high price.  AGNC is irregular with a high price.

Group C were common stocks meeting investment tests in December 1938 from the quantitative standpoint.  They included Adams-Millis, American Safety Razor, and J.J. Newberry.  I have never heard of any of these stocks.  The only stock in my example that makes this cut is Safe Bulkers.  This is why Safe Bulkers is in my best dividend stocks category.

* * * * * * *

Comments on the Various Groups.  The companies listed in Group A are representative of the so-called “first-grade” or “blue-chip” industrials, which were particularly favored in the great speculation of 1928-1929 and in the markets of ensuing years.  They are characterized by a strong financial position, by presumably excellent prospects and in most cases by relatively stable or growing earnings in the past.  The market price of the shares; however, was higher than would be justified by their average earnings.  In fact the profits of the best year in the 1929-1938 decade were less than 8% of the December 1938 market price.  It is also characteristic of such issues that they sell for enormous premiums above the actual capital invested.

            The companies analyzed in Group B are obviously speculative, because of great instability of their earning records.  They show varying relationships of market price to average earnings, maximum earnings, and asset values.

            The common stocks shown in Group C are examples of those which meet specific and quantitative tests of investment quality.  These tests include the following:

1.      The earnings have been reasonably stable, allowing for the tremendous fluctuations in business conditions during the ten-year period.

2.      The average earnings bear a satisfactory ratio to market price.

3.      The financial set-up is sufficiently conservative, and the working-capital position is strong.

Although we do not suggest that common stock bought for investment be required to show asset values equal to the price paid, it is non the less characteristic of Group C that, as a whole, they will not sell for a huge premium above the companies’ actual resources.

            Common-stock investment, as we envisage it, will confine itself to issues making exhibits of the kind illustrated by Group C.  But the actual purchase of any such issue must require also that the purchaser be satisfied in his own mind that the prospects of the enterprise are at least reasonably favorable.

* * * * * * *

Safe Bulkers is a dry bulk shipper with around sixteen ships rented out to various customers.  The dry bulk market suffering due to the global recession and a glut of ships built during the boom, but Safe Bulkers is well positioned to prosper in even that harsh environment.  Its prospects and the industries are good.

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

Examples of Speculative and Investment Common Stocks You've Got to See.

The second edition of Security Analysis provided several examples of speculative and investment common stocks.  The examples are so illustrative, but they are from 1940.  I wanted to bring the text of this section of the book into this blog with examples from several of the stocks that I have blogged about on www.myhighdividendstocks.com .

I chose the following stocks for examples: Goldcorp (GG), Proctor & Gamble (PG), American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC), Seadrill Limited (SDRL), Safe Bulkers (SB), and AT&T.  Let me tell you why I chose these stocks.  I wanted to also include Terra Nitrogen (TNH), but the results table would have been too unreadable.

Goldcorp (GG)  I used to own Goldcorp when it was priced in the high teens and twenties.  I wanted to revisit it because it is also in many gold mining stock funds such as FSAGX.  I currently own FSAGX in my 401(k) account and I’m considering selling it.  You will see why momentarily.

Proctor & Gamble (PG)  This stock is often written about in dividend aristocrat articles.  It pays a modest dividend and grows its dividend annually like clockwork.  Many people watch this dividend stock.

American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC)  I’ve included it because I have written many articles on this ultra-high dividend stock.  I don’t like it because its earnings can’t support the current dividend payout.  It balance sheet is horrible like all financial institutions (e.g. banks).

Seadrill Limited (SDRL)  This stock turned up on one of my high dividend stock screens and warrants further investigation to determine if it is speculative or investment grade.

Safe Bulkers (SB)  I love this high dividend stock with earning power and a strong balance sheet.  You will see why in moments.

AT&T (T)  I pays almost a 6% dividend and it is and dividend aristocrat.  Many eyes are on this one so I want to know at what price is it a value buy.

* * * * * * *

Examples of Speculative and Investment Common Stocks.  Our definition of an investment basis for common-stock purchases is a variance with the Wall Street practice in respect to common stocks of high rating.  For such issues a price of considerably more than 20 times average earnings is held to be warranted, and furthermore these stocks are designated as “investment issues” regardless of the price at which they sell.  According to our view, the high prices paid for “the best common stocks” make these purchases essentially speculative, because they require future growth to justify them.  Hence common-stock investment operations, as we define them, will occupy a middle ground in the market, lying between low-price issues that are speculative because of doubtful quality and well-entrenched issues that are speculative, none the less, because of their high price.

* * * * * * *

There were three groups of examples in Security Analysis.  Group A were common stocks speculative in December 1938 because of their high price (figures were adjusted to reflect changes in capitalization).  The companies in group A were: General Electric, Coca Cola, and Johns-Manville.  Proctor & Gamble and AT&T sort of fit into the Group A category.

Group B were common stocks speculative in December 1938 because of their irregular record.  Group B in 1938 was comprised of the following companies: Goodyear Tire and Rubber, Simmons, and Youngstown Sheet and Tube.  American Capital Agency Corp., Seadrill Limited and Goldcorp are definitely Group B.  Goldcorp also has a poor divided and a high price.  AGNC is irregular with a high price.

Group C were common stocks meeting investment tests in December 1938 from the quantitative standpoint.  They included Adams-Millis, American Safety Razor, and J.J. Newberry.  I have never heard of any of these stocks.  The only stock in my example that makes this cut is Safe Bulkers.  This is why Safe Bulkers is in my best dividend stocks category.

Item

Goldcorp (GG)

Proctor & Gamble (PG)

American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC)

Seadrill Limited (SDRL)

Safe Bulkers (SB)

AT&T (T)

Dividend Yield

0.84%

3.14%

19.50%

7.46%

6.85%

5.77%

Earnings per share

2001

?

?

-

-

-

?

2002

?

?

-

-

-

?

2003

?

?

-

-

-

?

2004

?

?

-

-

-

?

2005

$0.35

?

-

-

?

?

2006

$0.51

$3.05*

-

$0.56

$1.48

$1.24

2007

$0.58

$3.64*

-

$1.32

$3.18

$2.02

2008

$1.85

$4.25*

$0.28

($0.43)

$1.81

$2.18

2009

$0.30

$4.73*

$0.94

$3.31

$2.51

$2.05

2010

$1.64

$4.47*

$2.30

?

$1.66

$3.36

10-yr. average

?

?

-

-

-

?

5-yr. average (2006-2010)

$0.98

$4.03

3-yr. average

$1.17

4-yr. average

$1.19

$2.13

$2.17

12 times 5Y average earnings

$11.71

$48.36

$14.08

$14.28

$25.56

$26.04

20 times 5Y average earnings

$19.60

$80.60

A Mechanical Check for Investment in Common Stocks. The First in a Series.

In this blog post I’m going discuss some aspects of the mechanical tests your should apply to common stocks you are considering to buy and at what price.

On March 16th, 2011 I wrote about not buying a common stock generally above 20 times average earnings in this post: http://bit.ly/MaxAvgPE .  I have to admit that I was a little lazy.  Like most people I used 20 times the current annual earnings to complete the table in that blog post because it the info was readily available, but a five or ten year average is more through and enlightening.  It takes a while to find all the earnings data for the past ten years and then to make adjustments for changes in capitalization, warrants, and convertible preferred stocks.

The excerpt below from Benjamin Graham’s Security Analysis 2nd edition is a devastating indictment on how speculative so-called investors are both in 1940 and today.

Over the next couple of days I’m going to calculate many values for testing common stocks for investment basis that I’ve already written about on this blog.  The goal is separate the speculative stocks from the investment stocks.  The list includes: GoldCorp (GG), Proctor & Gamble (PG), American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC), SeaDrill (SDRL), Safe Bulkers (SB), and AT&T (T).

* * * * * * *

Higher Prices May Prevail for Speculative Commitments.  The intent of this distinction must be clearly understood.  We do not imply that it is a mistake to pay more than 20 times average earnings for any common stock.  We do suggest that such a price would be speculative.  The purchase may easily turn out to be highly profitable, but in that case it will have proved a wise or fortunate speculation.  It is proper to remark, moreover, that very few people are consistently wise or fortunate in their speculative operations.  Hence we may submit, as a corollary of no small practical importance, that people who habitually purchase common stocks at more than about 20 times their average earnings are likely to lose considerable money in the long run.  This is the more probable because, in the absence of such a mechanical check, they are prone to succumb recurrently to the lure of bull markets, which always find some specious argument to justify paying extravagant prices for common stocks.

            Other Requisites for Common Stocks of Investment Grade and a Corollary Therefrom.  It should be pointed out that if 20 times average earnings is taken as the upper limit of price for an investment purchase, then ordinarily the price paid should be substantially less than this maximum.  This suggests that about 12 or 12.5 times earnings may be suitable for the typical case of a company with neutral prospects.  We must emphasize also that a reasonable ratio of market price to average earnings is not the only requisite for a common-stock investment.  It is a necessary but not sufficient condition.  The company must be satisfactory also in its financial set-up and management, and not unsatisfactory in its prospects.

            From this principle there follows another important corollary, viz.: An attractive common-stock investment is an attractive speculation.  This is true because, if a common stock can meet the demand of a conservative investor that he get full value for his money plus not unsatisfactory future prospects, then such an issue must also have a fair chance of appreciating in market value.

* * * * * * * *

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!

Bernanke's Inept Sidekick.

Superheroes aren't the only ones with sidekicks. Evil central bankers like Ben Bernanke have them too. Meet Ben's evil sidekick.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig12/tamny4.1.1.html Note: Safe Bulkers (SB) CEO presented at an industry conference yesterday, but the slides in PDF format aren't available on their website yet. I will write about them once they become available.

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividedstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stock with earning power and strong balance sheets.

Be seeing you!