My High Dividend Stocks Blog http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com Most recent posts at My High Dividend Stocks Blog posterous.com Mon, 21 May 2012 14:28:12 -0700 Waiting for the Fidelity Select Gold Fund to bottom http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/waiting-for-the-fidelity-select-gold-fund-to http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/waiting-for-the-fidelity-select-gold-fund-to

I’m waiting for the Fidelity Select Gold fund (FSAGX) to bottom.  Then I’m going to buy some.  This is mutual fund made up of the major gold mining stocks.  The sovereign debt crisis in Europe will hurt the gold price.

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http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/697493/v_for_vendetta_guy_fawkes_mask11.jpg http://posterous.com/users/4wuf4tt8LZzb Jason Brizic myhighdividendstocks Jason Brizic
Thu, 08 Dec 2011 15:31:13 -0800 Gold mining stocks day four: Kinross Gold Corp (KGC) http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/gold-mining-stocks-day-four-kinross-gold-corp http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/gold-mining-stocks-day-four-kinross-gold-corp

It is crisis time in the Eurozone and elsewhere.  Stock markets will crash at least as hard as in 2008 when Europe goes into recession.  Gold is a crisis hedge, but it drops in a stock market crash also (just not a badly).  And gold mining stocks are a great performing asset, but only after most of the stock market crisis has passed because the world is dominated by Keynesian economics.  The financial media, government technocrats, and almost all PhD economists practice the voodoo economic religion of Keynesian economics.  Keynesian investors flee stock markets in a panic and run to US government bonds.  Bonds are bought in dollars.  Demand for dollars increases, demand for gold drops.  This is an opportunity of immense proportions if you keep your powder dry.

It is gold miners week at www.myhighdividendstocks.com, but not because gold miners are high dividend stocks.  Most are no or low dividend stocks.  However, gold mining stocks will offer some huge capital appreciation potential once the US and European stock markets crash again.  Every central bank in the world is printing money (Dollars, Euros, Yen, Pounds, and Yuan) and the commodity gold is priced in fiat currencies, so as more money is printed the price of gold expressed in fiat currencies goes up.  It really is that simple.  Gold mining companies can increase their profit margins when the cost of extracting gold from the Earth’s crust goes up a little and the price of gold goes up a lot.  But gold mining companies tend to be more volatile than the price of the underlying commodity.  They amplify gold’s gains and losses as you will see below.

So what is the best price for several of the gold majors that offers capital preservation and maximum opportunity for capital appreciation with maybe some dividends thrown in for good measure?  That’s what I hope to find out this week for you and I.

Next up is Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC)

Morningstar’s take: Kinross Gold is an intermediate-size gold company with operations in the U.S., Russia, Chile, Brazil, Ecuador, Ghana, and Mauritania. The company generates over 90% of revenue from gold sales and the rest from silver. Copper and other metal output is negligible. We do not think the company has an economic moat, as Kinross' mines are generally medium- to high-cost compared to industry peers. Over the years, Kinross has gone through a series of acquisitions and asset swaps to compile a portfolio of gold projects, however, the rising capital costs of these projects and higher production costs will be a big concern going forward.

Kinross Gold is a Canadian-based gold mining company with 62 million ounces of proven and probable gold reserves, 91 million ounces of silver reserves, and an annual production of 2.3 million ounces of gold. The company operates eight producing mines and five projects in the U.S., Latin America, Western Africa, and Russia.

Image002

Price: $13.26

Shares: 1.14 billion

Market capitalization: $15.08 billion

Bonds outstanding: $3.3 billion

Image006

None of Kinross’ bonds are due anytime soon.

Image008

DIVIDEND RECORD – Kinross has been paying a low semi-annual dividend since 2008.  There isn’t much history there, but they have grown the dividend by 50% from $0.04 to $0.06 in 4 years.

Image010

Dividend: $0.06 semi-annually

Dividend yield: 0.9% ($0.12 annual DIV/$13.26 share price)

Dividend payout ratio: 15% to 38% depending on how you calculate ($0.12/$0.81 recent EPS or $0.12/$0.26 avg adjusted EPS over six years)

EARNING POWER – Six year average adjusted earnings of $0.26 per share @ 1.142 billion shares

(Earnings adjusted for changes in capitalization – Kinross has increase the number of shares by 223% since 2006)

                        EPS       Net Inc.             Shares               Adj EPS

2006                 $0.47    $165 M              353 M                $0.14

2007                 $0.59    $334 M              566 M                $0.29

2008                 ($1.28) ($807 M)           629 M                ($0.71)

2009                 $0.44    $310 M              697 M                $0.27

2010                 $0.93    $772 M              829 M                $0.68

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

2011 Q1            $0.22    $256 M              1,139 M             $0.22

2011 Q2            $0.22    $247 M              1,141 M             $0.22

2011 Q3            $0.19    $213 M              1,142 M             $0.19

2011 Q4            $0.24 E $274 M E           1,142 M             $0.24 E

20011 E             $0.87    $990 M E           1,142 M             $0.87 E

Six year average adjusted earnings of $0.26 per share.

Consider contrarian buying at $2.08 (8 times average adj EPS)

Consider value buying at $3.12 (12 times average adj EPS)

Consider speculative selling at $5.20 (20 times average adj EPS)

Kinross Gold Corp is currently trading at 51 times average adjusted annual earnings.  The is highly speculative pricing.

BALANCE SHEET – That is a nice balance sheet, but goodwill accounts for 33% of assets.  It would still be a good balance sheet if goodwill were zero.

Image015

Book value per share: $13.22

Price to book value ratio: 1.00 (good)

Current ratio: 4.43 latest quarter (over 2.0 is good)

Quick ratio: 3.19 latest quarter (over 1.0 is good)

Debt to equity ratio: 0.09 (this is good)

CONCLUSION – Kinross Gold Corp. is a low dividend grower that is speculatively priced for its earning power.  The company’s balance sheet is strong.

Kinross bottomed in the $8.81 dollar range in October 2008 several months before the US stock market bottom in March of 2009.  That represented the best investment entry into Kinross since late 2008.  The gold price will go down at least half of the percentage of the stock market’s decline.  This happened in 2008-2009.  US stocks dropped about 50% and gold dropped about 25%.  However, Kinross dropped even more than the broader market or gold.  It dropped almost 67% from $26.84 in March 2008 down to $8.81 by October 2008.  Don’t think that it won’t happen again.  Wait for another bottom near value territory at $5.20 per share.  Kinross would be yielding about 2.3% if it keeps its new dividend rate at such a low price.  The good news is that gold will continue to go up in price as the world’s sovereign debt crisis worsens, but you have to buy extremely low to preserve your capital when purchasing mining stocks.

DISCLOSURE – I don’t own Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC).

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http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/697493/v_for_vendetta_guy_fawkes_mask11.jpg http://posterous.com/users/4wuf4tt8LZzb Jason Brizic myhighdividendstocks Jason Brizic
Wed, 07 Dec 2011 16:12:18 -0800 Gold mining stocks day three: Newmont Mining (NEM) http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/gold-mining-stocks-day-three-newmont-mining-n http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/gold-mining-stocks-day-three-newmont-mining-n

It is crisis time in the Eurozone and elsewhere.  Stock markets will crash at least as hard as in 2008 when Europe goes into recession.  Gold is a crisis hedge, but it drops in a stock market crash also (just not a badly).  And gold mining stocks are a great performing asset, but only after most of the stock market crisis has passed because the world is dominated by Keynesian economics.  The financial media, government technocrats, and almost all PhD economists practice the voodoo economic religion of Keynesian economics.  Keynesian investors flee stock markets in a panic and run to US government bonds.  Bonds are bought in dollars.  Demand for dollars increases, demand for gold drops.  This is an opportunity of immense proportions if you keep your powder dry.

It is gold miners week at www.myhighdividendstocks.com, but not because gold miners are high dividend stocks.  Most are no or low dividend stocks.  However, gold mining stocks will offer some huge capital appreciation potential once the US and European stock markets crash again.  Every central bank in the world is printing money (Dollars, Euros, Yen, Pounds, and Yuan) and the commodity gold is priced in fiat currencies, so as more money is printed the price of gold expressed in fiat currencies goes up.  It really is that simple.  Gold mining companies can increase their profit margins when the cost of extracting gold from the Earth’s crust goes up a little and the price of gold goes up a lot.  But gold mining companies tend to be more volatile than the price of the underlying commodity.  They amplify gold’s gains and losses as you will see below.

So what is the best price for several of the gold majors that offers capital preservation and maximum opportunity for capital appreciation with maybe some dividends thrown in for good measure?  That’s what I hope to find out this week for you and I.

Next up is Newmont Mining (NEM)

Morningstar’s take: Newmont Mining is the world's second-largest gold producer. In 2010, the company had slightly below-average operating costs. However, we expect unit costs to increase materially in 2011, driven by lower production and increases for everything from energy to labor and royalties. The company has two major advanced-stage projects in its pipeline--Conga in Peru and Akyem in Ghana--but first production will not appear until 2013-15 at the earliest. Therefore, we believe Newmont will face slightly declining overall production for the next few years.

Newmont is the world's second-largest gold producer. In 2010, the firm produced 6.5 million ounces of gold (consolidated, equity: 5.4 million) and 600 million pounds of copper (consolidated, equity: 327 million). North America accounted for 30% of consolidated gold production, South America for 23%, Asia Pacific for 39%, and Africa for 8%. As of Dec. 31, 2010, Newmont had 92 million ounces of proven and probable gold equity reserves.

Image003

Price: $67.62

Shares: 494.82 million (504 million fully diluted)

Market capitalization: $33.44 billion

Bonds outstanding: $4.2 billion

The circle near 2019 is $900 million dollars for scale purposes.

DIVIDEND RECORD – Steady dividend payer since at least 1987.  Last dividend cut was in 1997.  Newmont appears to be a decent dividend grower since 2010.

Image011

Dividend: $0.35/quarter

Dividend Yield: 2.08% ($1.40 annual DIV/$67.62 share price)

Dividend Payout Ratio:   ($1.40/$4.72 recent EPS)

EARNING POWER – Six year average adjusted earnings is $1.35 per share @ 504 million shares

(Earnings adjusted for changes in capitalization)

                        EPS       Net Inc.             Shares               Adj EPS

2006                 $1.75    $791 M              452 M                $1.57

2007                 ($4.17) ($1,886 M)        452 M                ($3.74)

2008                 $1.83    $831 M              455 M                $1.65

2009                 $2.66    $1,297 M           487 M                $2.57

2010                 $4.55    $2,277 M           500 M                $4.52

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

2011 Q1            $1.03    $514 M              501 M                $1.02

2011 Q2            $0.77    $387 M              501 M                $0.77

2011 Q3            $0.98    $493 M              504 M                $0.98

2011 Q4            $1.38 E $682 M  E          504 M                $1.35 E

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

2011 E              $4.16 E $2,076 E           504 M                $4.12 E

Estimates come from Reuters.com consensus for the next quarter

Six year average adjusted earnings per share is $1.35

Consider contrarian buying at $10.80 (8 times average adj EPS)

Consider value buying at $16.20 (12 times average adj EPS)

Consider speculative selling at $27.00 (20 time average adj EPS)

Newmont Mining is trading at 50 times average adjusted earnings.  This stock’s price is highly speculative.

BALANCE SHEET – I don’t like the recent dip in Newmont’s shareholder equity.  And the stock price is way too high compared to book value.

Image014

Book value per share: $27.50

Price to book value ratio: 2.45 (close to 1.0 or under is good)

Current ratio: 1.42 latest qtr (above 2.0 is good)

Quick ratio: 0.63 latest qtr (above 1.0 is good)

Debt to equity ratio: 0.26 (this is good)

CONCLUSION – Newmont Mining is a low dividend grower that is speculatively priced for its earning power.  The company’s balance sheet is okay, but its hard to tell if it is deteriorating without in depth analysis.  There is no need for this deeper analysis since the stock price is so speculative compared to earning power and price to book value per share.

Image017

Newmont bottomed in the $23.82 dollar range in October 2008 several months before the US stock market bottom in March of 2009.  That represented the best investment entry into Newmont since late 2008.  The gold price will go down at least half of the percentage of the stock market’s decline.  This happened in 2008-2009.  US stocks dropped about 50% and gold dropped about 25%.  However, Newmont dropped even more than the broader market or gold.  It dropped almost 60% from $59.87 in January 2006 down to $23.82 by October 2008.  Don’t think that it happen again.  Wait for another bottom near value territory at $16.20 per share.  Newmont would be yielding about 8.6% if it keeps its new dividend rate at such a low price.  The good news is that gold will continue to go up in price as the world’s sovereign debt crisis worsens, but you have to buy extremely low to preserve your capital when purchasing mining stocks.

DISCLOSURE – I don’t own Newmont Mining (NEM).

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Mon, 05 Dec 2011 15:01:00 -0800 Gold stock week day one - Goldcorp (GG) http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/gold-stock-week-day-one-goldcorp-gg http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/gold-stock-week-day-one-goldcorp-gg

It is crisis time in the Eurozone and elsewhere.  Stock markets will crash at least as hard as in 2008 when Europe goes into recession.  Gold is a crisis hedge, but it drops in a stock market crash also (just not a badly).  And gold mining stocks are a great performing asset, but only after most of the stock market crisis has passed because the world is dominated by Keynesian economics.  The financial media, government technocrats, and almost all PhD economists practice the voodoo economic religion of Keynesian economics.  Keynesian investors flee stock markets in a panic and run to US government bonds.  Bonds are bought in dollars.  Demand for dollars increases, demand for gold drops.  This is an opportunity of immense proportions if you keep your powder dry.

It is gold miners week at www.myhighdividendstocks.com, but not because gold miners are high dividend stocks.  Most are no or low dividend stocks.  However, gold mining stocks will offer some huge capital appreciation potential once the US and European stock markets crash again.  Every central bank in the world is printing money (Dollars, Euros, Yen, Pounds, and Yuan) and the commodity gold is priced in fiat currencies, so as more money is printed the price of gold expressed in fiat currencies goes up.  It really is that simple.  Gold mining companies can increase their profit margins when the cost of extracting gold from the Earth’s crust goes up a little and the price of gold goes up a lot.  But gold mining companies tend to be more volatile than the price of the underlying commodity.  They amplify gold’s gains and losses as you will see below.

So what is the best price for several of the gold majors that offers capital preservation and maximum opportunity for capital appreciation with maybe some dividends thrown in for good measure?  That’s what I hope to find out this week for you and I.

First up is Goldcorp (GG)

Image002

Market price: $51.10

Shares: 809.73 million

Market capitalization: $41.43 billion

Bonds: Goldcorp has very little bonds outstanding

Image006

DIVIDEND RECORD

Image009

Dividend: $0.045/month ($0.54 annually).  Goldcorp just announced a dividend increase from $0.03/mo. to $0.045/mo.  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldcorp-increases-monthly-dividend-2011-12-05-73400 .  They have been paying dividends steadily since late 2003.

Dividend yield: ~1.0% ($0.54/$51.10 market price)

Dividend payout ratio:  23.8% to 52.4% depending on what you measure ($0.54/$2.26 latest EPS = 23.8% or $0.54/$1.03 avg adjusted EPS = 52.4%)

EARNING POWER

(Earnings adjusted for changes in capitalization)

                        EPS       Net inc.             Shares               Adj. EPS

2006                 $0.93    $408 M              441 M                $0.50   

2007                 $0.65    $460 M              709 M                $0.57

2008                 $2.06    $1,476 M           715 M                $1.82

2009                 $0.33    $240 M              735 M                $0.30

2010                 $2.13    $1,574 M           786 M                $1.94

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

2011 Q1            $0.81    $651 M              809.73 M           $0.80

2011 Q2            $0.52    $489 M              809.73 M           $0.60

2011 Q3            $0.41    $336 M              809.73 M           $0.41

2011 Q4 (E)       $0.64 E $518 M E           809.73 M E        $0.64 E

Goldcorp’s six year average adjusted earnings* is $1.27 per share

Consider contrarian buying at $10.16 (8 times average adj. EPS)

Consider value buying at $15.24 (12 times average adj. EPS)

Consider speculative selling at $25.40 (20 times average adj. EPS)

Goldcorp is trading at 40.2 times average adjusted earnings.  This is highly SPECULATIVE despite the bull market in gold.

* includes 2011 4Q Reuters concensus earnings estimates of  $0.64 per share

BALANCE SHEET – That is a pretty good looking balance sheet

Image012

Book value per share: $25.76

Price to book value ratio: 1.98 (not bad, but closer to 1.00 is desirable)

Current Ratio: 3.82 (latest quarter; over 2.0 is good)

Quick Ratio: 2.65 (latest quarter; over 1.0 is good)

Debt/equity Ratio: 0.03 (awesome)

CONCLUSION – Goldcorp bottomed in the $17.00 dollar range in October 2008 several months before the US stock market bottom in March of 2009.  That represented the best value entry into Goldcorp since late 2008.  The gold price will go down at least half of the percentage of the stock market’s decline.  This happened in 2008-2009.  US stocks dropped about 50% and gold dropped about 25%.  However, Goldcorp dropped even more than the broader market or gold.  It dropped almost 65% from $48.29 in July of 2008 down to $17.01 by October 2008.  Don’t think that it happen again.  Wait for another bottom near value territory at $15.24 per share.  Goldcorp would be yielding about 3.5% if it keeps its new dividend rate at such a low price.  The good news is that gold will continue to go up in price as the world’s sovereign debt crisis worsens, but you have to buy extremely low to preserve your capital when purchasing mining stocks.

DISCLOSURE – I don’t own Goldcorp (GG) now, but I did own it a few years ago.

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http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/697493/v_for_vendetta_guy_fawkes_mask11.jpg http://posterous.com/users/4wuf4tt8LZzb Jason Brizic myhighdividendstocks Jason Brizic
Thu, 17 Nov 2011 12:05:06 -0800 Central Banks in Scramble to Buy Gold http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/central-banks-in-scramble-to-buy-gold http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/central-banks-in-scramble-to-buy-gold Central banks around the world are buying gold to diversify the foreign exchange reserves. They are scared of the dominoes falling. Europe will likely be the first domino to fall, then the US, and then Asia. All central bankers are Keynesians by their nature. They believe that government deficits overcome recessions. They create fiat money out-of-thin-air to buy mostly government bonds. But this increases the money supply (inflation) which normally leads to higher prices of goods. When goods prices rises massively there is societal discord and strife.

Central bankers dislike gold, but they hold it to preserve some figment of monetary legitimacy. They hold it like a housewife holds a toilet brush; with nose pinched and at arms length. It is a hated but necessary tool. That is why John Maynard Keynes called gold "a barbarous relic". Gold can't created at the whim of some anti-capitalist central banker to fund the deficits of bankrupt socialist governments.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/11/17/central-banks-in-scramble-to-buy-g...

Some central bankers are positioning their country's for the post-US-dollar-as-the-world's-reserve-currency world. When the music stops they don't want to be holding a central bank full of US I.O.U.s.

You should have 20-30% of your net worth in physical precious metal coins. They will hold their purchasing power through crisis.

There will be a time many years from now when you should sell some to pay off your mortgage. When central bankers cease to inflate their money supplies for real, then a depression will ensue that will contract the money supply (deflation). All prices will fall. The purchasing power of the domestic will rise and fixed rate loans will be harder to pay back. Think of the US deflationary depression in 1930-1933.

Subscribe today at www.myhighdividendstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets. You will also how to diversify out of fiat money investment into assets that are non-correlators to the US stock market.

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Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:37:51 -0800 TIP OF THE WEEK - It's Official: Wall Street Firms May Legally Steal From Their Customers http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/tip-of-the-week-its-official-wall-street-firm http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/tip-of-the-week-its-official-wall-street-firm

It’s Official: Wall Street Firms May Legally Steal From Their Customers

Jason Brizic

November 11th, 2011

Desperate people do desperate things.  Don’t make it easy for them to fleece you.

Don’t put all your financial eggs in one basket.  You should own:

·         Your own business (to generate income even in retirement)

·         Physical precious metals (gold and silver coins from you country’s mint)

·         Rental real estate (3 bedroom, 2 bath houses in neighborhoods with good schools)

·         Currencies (US dollars in printed cash, Yen in printed cash)

·         Goods (all the commercial goods you can store that you will consume anyways)

·         High dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets

Wall Street firms and commodities futures firms can legally steal from their customers.  Examine your terms and conditions that you have with your brokerage firm (e.g E*Trade, ScottTrade, etc..).  Minimize your stock holdings as a percentage of your net worth.  I’m targeting only 5%-10% of my net worth for my high dividend stock portfolio.  There are great risks that are going unnoticed by most investors in the world’s bond and equity markets.

I offer this article as proof: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/it%E2%80%99s-official-wall-street-firms-may-legally-steal-their-customers

For more tips, go here:

http://www.myhighdividendstocks.com/category/tip-of-the-week

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Mon, 31 Oct 2011 20:47:24 -0700 A scary chart for Keynesians on Halloween http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/a-scary-chart-for-keynesians-on-halloween http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/a-scary-chart-for-keynesians-on-halloween
The scariest chart ever - to a Keynesian!!
 
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Fri, 14 Oct 2011 12:58:36 -0700 TIP OF THE WEEK - Gold is a crisis hedge. Own some before the next crisis. http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/tip-of-the-week-gold-is-a-crisis-hedge-own-so http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/tip-of-the-week-gold-is-a-crisis-hedge-own-so

Gold is a crisis hedge.  Own some before the next crisis.

Jason Brizic

October 14th, 2011

Gold is a crisis hedge.  Rich people buy gold when they are fearful.

There are several good reasons for the wealthy to be fearful right now.  They own more that 80% of all stocks and bonds.  The European sovereign debt crisis is real, the USA will be bankrupted by welfare and warfare programs, and the Chinese economic bubble is going to pop.  Bonds aren’t safe, stocks aren’t safe, and interest rates are at historic lows in many economies.  Gold is a refuge from these crisis events that will not be solved through political means.

The gold price will continue to go up so long as central bankers run their printing presses.  Central bankers such as Ben Bernanke believe in Keynesian economics.  Keynesian economics can be summed up in four words: “Deficit Spending Overcomes Recessions”.  It doesn’t work, but they is what they believe and they are in charge of governments and central banks.

The Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke has tripled the monetary base since 2008.

Image001

Most of this money is being held by the large commercial banks as excess reserves.  It is not being loaned into the economy.

Image002

Despite gold’s price increases it has not increased in proportion with the inflation of the monetary base.  It has not risen as much because most of the money created by the Federal Reserve has not flowed into the economy to increase the prices of everything.  The newly created money is locked away in the excess reserves of the large commercial banks.  If they were to lend it out, then prices would rise more than the 300% increase in the monetary base due to fractional reserve banking process.  Basically, one dollar added to the monetary base could become 7-10 more dollars in the M1 money supply (depending on how profligate the bankers loans are).

These are the best gold prices since the July-August 2011 timeframe.  Take this opportunity to make your first purchases of some gold coins.  Politicians will announce solutions to the sovereign debt crisis, the FED will announce better economic numbers, and the Chinese will deny they are in a bubble until it obviously pops.  Don’t believe them.  Greece will default.  They are the first domino to fall.  Nobody talks about the Medicare and Social Security unfunded liabilities.  They are too huge.  They are dozens of trillions of dollars.  The Chinese mercantilists have been inflating they currency and their economy.  When they stop their will be a severe recession in China.

Go to www.apmex.com and take a look at the one ounce gold coins from your country’s mint.  Then buy one if you have none already.  I had a good experience with American Precious Metals Exchange in the past.  I get no commissions or anything from them.

For more tips, go here:

http://www.myhighdividendstocks.com/category/tip-of-the-week

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Sun, 09 Oct 2011 09:59:41 -0700 On The Recent Gold Pullback: Observe The Fundamentals http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/on-the-recent-gold-pullback-observe-the-funda http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/on-the-recent-gold-pullback-observe-the-funda
On The Recent Gold Pullback: Observe The Fundamentals by Peter Schiff
 
He states the reasons why the recent pullback in the gold price is an opportunity to buy cheaper.  I agree with him.  Buy gold coins while worldwide stock markets tank.  Buy high dividend stocks near the bottom.
 
 
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Thu, 06 Oct 2011 12:23:38 -0700 Reasons why you should own gold in your investment assets. http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/reasons-why-you-should-own-gold-in-your-inves http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/reasons-why-you-should-own-gold-in-your-inves

Big government statists who believe in Keynesian economics hate gold.  They write articles to persuade you not to buy the metal which has severed as money for most of the past 5,000 years.  Here is an article by Yale/Harvard trained Fareed Zakaria.  Mr. Zakaria is a current contributor to the dying Times magazine.

Precious metals are a crisis hedge.  There really is a crisis that is at the boiling over point.  The government debt crisis brought on by decades of Keynesian deficit spending is happening now.  They will print more money to attempt to stop the crisis money printing caused.  Keynesian central bankers and governments are pouring gas on the fire to put it out.  Mr. Zakaria is trying to convince you that it will put the fire out.

All that's gold doesn't glitter <http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/03/why-gold-might-be-a-bad-investment/>

By Fareed Zakaria, CNN

What do Hugo Chavez and Glenn Beck have in common? The socialist/populist president of Venezuela and the right-wing talk show host often have strange ideas - just not the same ones. But it turns out, they are both gold bugs.

Now, many people have been investing in gold. But Hugo Chavez wants to horde it literally, physically. The Venezuelan government controls the world's 15th largest stockpile of gold: about 365 tons. But, like most gold investors, it doesn't really have that gold. At least not physically. More than half of Venezuela's reserves are held overseas in London, New York and Zurich. If you ever visit the New York federal reserve, you can even see it in the underground vaults, neatly labelled as Venezuela's.

You are not investing in gold if you do not take physical ownership of it.  Many people are trading paper promises in gold such as the gold ETF (GLD).  I don’t like Hugo Chavez, but he’d be wise to repatriate the Venezuelan government’s gold to Venezuela.

Mr. Chavez, as you know, doesn't like the West; he doesn't like this predicament. So he's announced he wants his gold. But how do you transport 211 tons of gold across the seas? Well, by spending lots of money. You have to insure against a gold heist, like the one in The Italian Job <http://www.italianjobmovie.com/> . Experts say Mr. Chavez could spend at least 4% of the total value of his gold on insurance, with more on security and transport. Add it all up and you could get about half a billion dollars. That's serious money for any country, let alone one that has negative growth rates as does Venezuela these days.

The Venezuelan government could transport the gold in a ship across the sea.  And they could pay for it with fiat money that their central bank could print to buy insurance against a heist.  Economic growth rates measured by changes in GDP is just another Keynesian aggregated number compiled by salaried bureaucrats.  It is true that the standard of living is going down in Venezuela, but it is due to socialism’s effects.  Keynesians believe that government spending adds to an economy.  In reality, government spending must come from the money that consumers planned on spending themselves or from the investments that individuals would have made themselves.  It doesn’t add to the economy; it just redirects money into unprofitable government programs.

What in the World is Hugo Chavez thinking?

Actually: He's not alone. From the ancient times of Egypt's Tutankhamun to the Gold Rush in the mid-19th century, right through to the modern day, we've always been attracted to gold. Who can ever forget the appropriately named Auric Goldfinger, from the James Bond movie, who said, "This is gold, Mr. Bond. All my life I've admired its color, its brilliance, its divine heaviness."

Mr. Goldfinger forgot to mention its rarity, divisibility, purity, durability, and portability.  These are some of the qualities that make good mediums of exchange (money).

There are many who share Mr. Goldfinger's sentiments around the globe. especially in times of confusion and uncertainty about governments. People worry that governments are keeping interest rates too low, that will cause inflation and could weaken the dollar and other currencies.

There is a very real soverign debt crisis (read government debt crisis) at hand.  It is the result of decades of Keynesian economic policies.  Keynesians believe that government spending is productive especially in a time of recession/depression.  A free market in interest rates would be higher than they are now.  There will be massive price inflation when the commercial banks loan out their $1.7 trillion in excess reserves.  The dollar will continue to decline until the Federal Reserve stiffs the US Treasury at some point in the future.

The answer: Store Gold - something that has always been seen as a solid, substantial hedge against inflation. If everything else collapses, the theory goes, gold will hold its value. For this reason, in the last decade gold prices have risen more than 600%. Is this a rational response to legitimate fears of inflation? Or are we in the middle of a bubble?

Gold is only a crisis hedge (this includes massive price inflation like 20-30% per annum and hyperinflation).  Gold does not hedge against run of the mill FED inflation of 2-3% per annum.  There is a real crisis in the financial system and in government debt service.  There is no bubble in gold until the FED stiffs the US Treasury and causes a 1930-1933 deflation (aka the Great Depression).

There are signs that suggest a bubble. The fact is, global demand for gold in industry and jewelry has actually declined by 18% since 2004. And yet over the same period prices have surged. So it's clear that the market is flooded with speculators who see gold as an investment, not as a usable currency or product.

The decline in demand for jewelry is no surprise.  This is basic economics.  If the price of a good such as jewelry goes up, then the demand for that good goes down (all other things being equal).  The price of gold is being driven up because there is a real increase in demand at the current prices.  Some investors realize that the price will continue to go up as long as the FED keeps creating digital dollars for bailouts.  I’ll save my defense of speculators for another article.  In short, they minimize price swings through their actions.  If you can’t wait, then read Walter Block’s chapter on speculators available for free at http://mises.org/resources/3490/Defending-the-Undefendable .

What's really changed in the last few years is access. It's easier to buy gold over the internet than it is stocks or shares. In places like Abu Dhabi and some European cities, you can buy grams of gold at ATM-style dispensers. All over the world, there's a new Gold Rush. You switch on the TV and commercials warn you that the end of the world is coming and that you need to put your money in gold. Glenn Beck says that if you haven't switched your savings to gold, you're nuts. And Donald Trump is now accepting gold bars instead of wire transfers for luxury condos.

This is not true.  It is not easier to buy gold online; it is slightly harder because you usually need to use a bank wire to buy at good prices.  Buying a gold ETF like GLD is just as easy as buying stocks, but that isn’t buying gold that will be physically delivered to you.  The gold ATMs are so limited in distribution that they are just novelties at this point.  When they start showing up next to Redbox video rentals then maybe I’ll consider gold becoming a bubble.  There is a new gold rush because the crisis is going to be as bad or worse than the Great Depression.  Almost no one owns gold presently despite all the TV commercials.  It represents less than 1% of financial assets.  Donald Trump is wise to accept gold bars as payment.

I recommend that you own 20% - 30% of your net worth in precious metals that you physically posses.  If you have a net worth of $100,000, then that means you should own between $20,000 and $30,000 in precious metals.  I would keep 80% in gold and only 20% in silver.  Silver is much more volatile than gold.  Buy one ounce or tenth ounce gold coins printed by the mint of the country you reside in.  Your precious metals are not a hedge against inflation.  They are a hedge against massive inflation caused by a rapidly expanding money supply.  They are useless in a hyperinflation (which I don’t think will happen), but valuable in the aftermath to capitalize a business or to pay off debts by selling off a few ounces.

Most investment advisors will only advise 5% of your net worth at the maximum because they have no understanding of economics.  That leaves 95% in dollar denominated assets.  This is unwise.

This is bizarre. A lot of it is simply scaremongering. The truth is that for two and half decades, between 1980 and the mid 2000s - gold prices actually declined. Unlike many other commodities which actually have an end use - oil, minerals - gold is just a symbol, and as such its price rises have to do more with psychology and emotion than reason. So, when it falls out of fashion, the price could really collapse. The next time you watch Goldfinger or you hear of the antics of a Hugo Chavez or a Donald Trump, be a little wary.

The price of gold did in fact decline as price inflation rose from 1980 to the mid 2000s.  There was no perceived crisis then.  This is why it is only a crisis hedge.  Gold doesn’t hedge you against non-crisis levels of price inflation.  Gold is a commodity; it has an end use as jewelry, in electronics, and as a crisis hedge.  It is possible that it will serve as money again in the future, but even if it doesn’t it still has value and can be exchanged for other fiat monies (Yen, Dollars, Euro, Pounds, etc.).

The price of gold will go down during a deflationary depression.  When the FED ceases to buy US treasury bonds and (gasp!) sells some of its assets the money supply will fall.  A falling money supply is called deflation.  It hasn’t happened since 1933.  As the money supply shrinks many banks will collapse.  The small and medium sized banks will collapse because the FED won’t be bailing them out.  The biggest banks will probably survive because the FED protects them.  The dollar will strengthen in purchasing power and gold will fall.  Printed currency in your possession is king in a true deflationary depression.  Digital money in your savings, retirement accounts, and checking accounts will be disappearing when your bank dies.  There is no FDIC protect as this point in time (remember the FED stiffed the US treasury which funds the FDIC).  You should always have some currency at home in a safe with your precious metals.

Gold isn't a stock with real earnings. It isn't a bond with interest payments. It isn't oil. It won't help you drive a car; it won't help you light a fire. Yes, you can wear it, but you can't eat it. If doomsday really arrives, a can of baked beans might be worth a lot more than a brick of gold

We are in a bear market.  Many stocks will suffer a loss of real earnings.  Bonds are in a bubble.  Oil will decline in price until the banks begin to increase lending, then it will shoot upward with the massive price inflation.  US dollars won’t help you drive a car; they won’t help you light a fire.  Wait a minute.  US dollars might be useful for lighting a fire during a hyperinflation.  You can’t eat US dollars either.

You should buy storable goods that you will use or consume in the future now while prices are relatively cheap.  Once you have a good supply of storable goods in your basement or storage areas start consuming them and replenishing them in a rotation.  Do this before you buy gold.  Then buy gold and have some currency on hand.  Most people are in such bad financial shape that they probably shouldn’t own any gold because they haven’t taken care of their immediate needs first (such as water, food, and basic consumables).  A typical gold bar is 400 ounces.  The ultrarich might own a few bars, but no one else.  This is hyperbole.  Buy the beans now while their cheap.

Here is some of the Wikipedia entry for Fareed Zakaria who is the author of the article I just refuted.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fareed_Zakaria  Yale and Harvard graduates are thoroughly schooled in Keynesian economics and Council on Foreign Relations one-world-government ideologies such as socialism and national socialism.  He is not an advocate of individual freedom and unfettered voluntary exchange.  He was born into the political class that has everything to lose when Keynesian policies fail.  Don’t forget this.

Early life

Zakaria was born in Mumbai (then Bombay), Maharashtra, India, to a Konkani Muslim family.[3] His father, Rafiq Zakaria, was a politician associated with the Indian National Congress and an Islamic scholar. His mother, Fatima Zakaria, was for a time the editor of the Sunday Times of India.

Zakaria attended the Cathedral and John Connon School in Mumbai. He received a Bachelor of Arts from Yale University,[1] where he was president of the Yale Political Union, editor-in-chief of the Yale Political Monthly, a member of the Scroll and Key society, and a member of the Party of the Right. He later earned a Doctor of Philosophy in political science from Harvard University in 1993,[1] where he studied under Samuel P. Huntington and Stanley Hoffmann.

Career

After directing a research project on American foreign policy at Harvard, Zakaria became managing editor of Foreign Affairs magazine in 1992. In October 2000, he was named editor of Newsweek International,[1] and wrote a weekly foreign affairs column. In August 2010 it was announced that he was moving from Newsweek to Time magazine, to serve as a contributing editor and columnist.[4]

He has written on a variety of subjects for the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, The New Yorker, and as a wine columnist for the web magazine Slate.[5][6]

Zakaria is the author of From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America's World Role (Princeton, 1998), The Future of Freedom (Norton, 2003), and The Post-American World (2008); he has also co-edited The American Encounter: The United States and the Making of the Modern World (Basic Books).

In 2007, Foreign Policy and Prospect magazines named him one of the 100 leading public intellectuals in the world.[7]

Zakaria was a news analyst with ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos (2002–2007); he hosted the weekly TV news show, Foreign Exchange with Fareed Zakaria on PBS (2005–2008); his weekly show, Fareed Zakaria GPS (Global Public Square) premiered on CNN in June 2008.[1] It airs on Sundays at 10:00am and 1:00pm Eastern Daylight Time.

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Mon, 19 Sep 2011 13:43:13 -0700 Gold-Backed Dollar Puts 'Fair Value' at $10,000 an Ounce: Chart of the Day http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/gold-backed-dollar-puts-fair-value-at-10000-a http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/gold-backed-dollar-puts-fair-value-at-10000-a

Gold is down to $1,780 today.  You should own at least $10,000 in gold coins.  Buy some tenth ounce coins from your national mint.  I like American Precious Metals Exchange www.ampex.com .  I get no money from them.  I just had a good experience buying from them.  Don’t delay your first purchase forever.  Central bankers are printing more money than they already have due to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe that will bankrupt both the big European banks and the big American banks.  When these banks increase their lending, then prices of goods will skyrocket (including gold).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-15/gold-backed-dollar-signals-10-000-metal-price-chart-of-the-day.html

Gold-Backed Dollar Puts ‘Fair Value’ at $10,000 an Ounce: Chart of the Day

By David Wilson - Sep 14, 2011 10:01 PM MT

Enlarge image

Gold-Backed Dollar Signals $10,000 Metal Price

Image002

Paul Taggart/Bloomberg

Gold for immediate delivery closed at $1,819.63 an ounce on the spot market yesterday.

Gold for immediate delivery closed at $1,819.63 an ounce on the spot market yesterday. Photographer: Paul Taggart/Bloomberg

Gold has the potential to jump more than fivefold as the precious metal’s price catches up with the surging amount of money in the U.S. economy, according to Dylan Grice, a global strategist at Societe Generale SA.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the price at which each U.S. dollar in the monetary base, compiled by the Federal Reserve, would have been backed by an ounce of gold for the past half century. International Monetary Fund data on the country’s gold reserves were used in the calculation.

Grice, based in London, identified this price as the metal’s “fair value” yesterday in a report. Since June, it has exceeded $10,000 an ounce, as depicted in the chart’s top panel. Gold for immediate delivery closed at $1,819.63 an ounce on the spot market yesterday.

The bottom panel tracks the value of U.S. gold holdings, based on the spot price, as a percentage of the monetary base for the 50-year period. August’s proportion was 18 percent of the $2.66 trillion in the economy. The latter figure was more than triple the amount three years earlier, reflecting efforts by the Fed to spur economic growth.

“There is a demand for an honest currency,” Grice wrote. “The last time honesty was perceived to be so scarce -- in the 1970s gold mania -- the dollar was over-backed by gold. If it happened then, why not again?”

U.S. gold holdings peaked at 131 percent of the monetary base in January 1980, when spot gold climbed to $850 an ounce after a more than 14-fold advance in the preceding decade. The high equals about $2,330 an ounce in today’s dollars, according to a Labor Department calculator.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Wilson in New York at dwilson@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net

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Tue, 16 Aug 2011 13:24:42 -0700 Don't be aggressive buying (AGRO). Patience, please. http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/dont-be-aggressive-buying-agro-patience-pleas http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/dont-be-aggressive-buying-agro-patience-pleas

I’m looking for bull markets within the secular bear market.  Precious metals and food commodities come to mind.  There are no high dividend food stocks, but there are some food commodity ETFs and some food production companies.  One of those companies is Adecoagro (AGRO).  The bottom line is AGRO should not be purchased until they can prove they can earn profits.  This company has good potential, so don’t stop reading yet.  They produce crops that people will buy in boom times or bust.  I think the bust will continue plus massive doses of price inflation.

Adecoagro S.A. is an agricultural company in South America, with operations in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. It is engaged in a range of businesses, including farming crops and other agricultural products, cattle and dairy operations, sugar, ethanol and energy production and land transformation. As of September 30, 2010, it owned a total of 287,884 hectares, consisted of 21 farms in Argentina, 15 farms in Brazil and two farms in Uruguay. As of September 30, 2010, it owned and operated several agro-industrial production facilities, including three rice processing facilities in Argentina, a dairy operation with approximately 4,500 milking cows in Argentina, two coffee processing plants in Brazil, seven grain and rice conditioning and storage plants in Argentina and two sugar and ethanol mills in Brazil with a sugarcane crushing capacity of 5.2 million tons. It is engaged in three businesses: farming business; sugar, ethanol and energy business, and land transformation business.

The socialist government of Argentina might pass a law restricting foreign ownership of agricultural lands.  This doesn’t help AGRO attract foreign capital to buy new properties and businesses in Argentina.  The CEO explained in the recent conference call that they are going to expand in Brazil and Uruguay where the governments are less hostile.

To hear the recent earnings conference call click on the 1Q11 Webcast button on this site http://ir.adecoagro.com/adecoagro/web/default_en.asp?idioma=1&conta=44

Adecoagro (AGRO)

Market price: $10.12

Shares: 108.87 million

Market capitalization: $1.101 billion

Image002

Dividend record: None.  The company has never paid a dividend.

Earning power: Since 2007 AGRO has an average adjusted earning power of ($0.07) per share.  The company has lost money the last three out of four years.  I only like profitable companies.  It will be interesting to see if AGRO can start producing profits in the next two years.

(Earnings adjusted for changes in capitalization.  Adjusted EPS based on 108.87 million shares)

            EPS                   Net inc.             Adj. EPS            Shares

2006

2007     $0.20                $29.170 M         $0.27                144.105 M

2008     ($0.09)             ($19.334 M)       ($0.18)             204.279 M

2009     ($0.01)             ($0.26 M)          ($0.002)            228.05 M

2010     ($0.36)             ($43.904 M)       ($0.40)             121.667 M

Four year average adjusted earnings per share ($0.07)

Consider buying below $6.51 (less than the 2010 shareholder equity without the recent secondary equity offering)

Consider selling above $9.00 (the current book value per share including the money from the recent secondary offering)

Balance sheet: Up from its purchases of farmland

Image004

Book value per share: $9.00 (TTM and most of it from the recent secondary equity offering)

Price to book value ratio: 1.12 (good)

Current ratio: 2.89 (over 2.0 is good)

Quick ratio: 2.17 (over 1.0 is good)

Disclosure: I don’t own Adecoagro (AGRO) and I won’t until it is profitable without equity offerings.  This one is going on my watch list at $5.00 per share

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Thu, 19 May 2011 13:42:01 -0700 Ron Paul: "Sell the Gold in Ft. Knox" http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/ron-paul-sell-the-gold-in-ft-knox http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/ron-paul-sell-the-gold-in-ft-knox

There are two types of gold standards: a government gold standard and a private gold coin standard.  The private gold coin standard is consistent with a truly free market.  The government gold standard (1933-1971) is statist and should be rejected in favor of a private gold coin standard.

I recommend that you possess 20-30% of you non-house net worth in physical gold coins.  This article will help you greatly understand both types of gold standards.  This topic will not go away until the US government goes broke.  The US Federal Reserve is inflating like Zimbabwe several years before their hyperinflation.

For example, the people calling themselves the government of Zimbabwe destroyed the Zimbabwe dollar through hyperinflation culminating in 2008.  Now the failed chief central bank president, Dr. Gedeon Gono, is talking about a return to “the gold standard”.  The question is which gold standard?  Keep that in mind as you read the excellent article below.

Zimbabwe's central bank president, Dr Gideon Gono, is calling for Zimbabwe to consider going on the gold standard.

Zimbabwe best known for their inflationary ways (their inflation rate reached 489 billion percent in September 2008) has possibly recognized that the former leader of the bankster world the arrested Dominique Strauss-Kahn is a bankster scam artist and that gold is the only real hard money.

“There is a need for us to begin thinking seriously and urgently about introducing a Gold-backed Zimbabwe currency which will not only be stable but internationally acceptable,” he said in an interview with state media, reports New Zimbabwe.

Click here for the rest of the article: http://www.lewrockwell.com/wenzel/wenzel106.html

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* * * * * * *

Ron Paul: "Sell the Gold in Ft. Knox"

Gary North
May 19, 2011

Ask a gold bug if he thinks that Franklin Roosevelt did the right thing in 1933 when he unilaterally confiscated the gold coins of all Americans. He will tell you "no." Why not? "Because it was a violation of property rights. The Federal government had no legal authority to do this."

But the Supreme Court authorized it, 5 to 4. The gold bug will tell you that the Supreme Court cannot be trusted.

Fast forward almost 70 years. Ron Paul announces at the Heritage Foundation that the government should sell its gold to reduce the national debt.

http://www.nysun.com/national/selling-gold-at-fort-knox-emerges-as-next-big/87350

No one comes to his defense.

Understandably, the Treasury Department got one of its staffers to write a critique. The government should sell no assets, she insists. Congress must raise the debt ceiling. There are not enough assets to sell. She ridiculed the suggestion of a balanced budget through asset sales. With a deficit of $125 billion a month, she said, a fire sale would do no good.

Then, amazingly, she admitted that gold is central to the perception if the U.S. government as solvent.

A "fire sale" of the Nation's gold to meet payment obligations would undercut confidence in the United States both here and abroad, and would be extremely destabilizing to the world financial system.

Treasury Secretaries from both parties have made it clear that they would not sell gold in order to buy time in a debt limit impasse. As then-Treasury Secretary James A. Baker said: "President [Reagan] and I are not prepared to take that step because it would undercut confidence here and abroad based on the widespread belief that the gold reserve is the foundation of our financial system, and because the Congress clearly has the power to prevent a default by assuming its responsibility with respect to the debt limit." When President Reagan was asked whether he would consider selling gold, he told his Budget Director, James Miller, "absolutely not." Similarly, Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin said, "We will not sell the nation's gold supply."

In short, gold is not a barbarous relic. Gold in the vault at Fort Knox and in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a private corporation) is basic to the world's confidence.

But what about gold in the hands of Americans? She did not say. The Treasury has had contempt for that idea ever since 1933.

That a salaried government bureaucrat would oppose the sale is understandable. But equally incensed are gold bugs. Only one came to his defense: the #1 scholar of the American gold standard, Dr. Edwin Vieira, author of Pieces of Eight, a 1600-page history of the gold standard in America. "Redeemable currency is an oxymoron." The government has no plans to restore a gold standard of any kind. "They don't need the gold. They've just been sitting on it since Roosevelt stole it."

Everyone else was critical of Paul's suggestion to restore gold to the private sector.

What's going on here? If it was immoral and illegal for the government to confiscate the gold at $20 an ounce in 1933, why is it a bad idea for the government to sell back the gold to the public at a market price today?

We see once again that people who say they believe that gold is the basis of freedom do not believe it. They believe in the United States government. They believe that the government has the right to hang onto its stolen gold. Why? Because the government will someday establish a gold standard. The gold belongs to the government.

But what is a gold standard? It is a system in which the government buys and sells gold at a foxed price. We have not had that system since 1933. The government did make the promise to foreign governments and central banks, but Nixon unilaterally broke the promise on August 15, 1971.

The gold bugs have now converted to Franklin Roosevelt's idea of a gold standard: a system in which the government has the right to steal property at one price, hike the price later, and sit on the wealth. The gold bugs honestly trust the Federal government to restore a gold standard someday. There has not been one since since 1933 that any government on earth will do this, but somehow, the gold bugs believe, it will do it in the future.

Fine. If the government sold all of its gold today, this would deplete the Federal Reserve of part of its monetary base. The public would have the gold. The FED could buy assets to replace the gold. That would restore the monetary base. The FED would have worthless IOUs, and the public would have the gold.

My preference would be for the gold to be sold as tenth-ounce American eagles. Sell it to American citizens, not foreign central banks. Get Americans used to holding small gold coins. The government stole the gold from Americans. It should sell it back to Americans.

But gold bugs see what is at stake. The price of gold would fall. They bought gold as an investment. They worry that they would lose money if the stolen gold were sold. Better to let the Federal government hang onto stolen goods than to let the public get its gold back.

They do not believe in the free market. They believe in a rigged market, one in which the government gets the right to hold onto stolen gold forever, or what is the equivalent of forever: the restoration of a gold standard.

But what kind of gold standard? The kind that existed under Bretton Woods system (1946-71)? One in which there is no legal right for common people to buy gold at a fixed price? That transferred power to Richard Nixon. How good a gold standard was that?

What kind of gold standard is a government-guaranteed gold standard? "Turn over your gold to us. You can get it back at any time." That was what banks around the world promised until August 1914. Then the central banks confiscated the gold held on deposit at commercial banks. The gold was never returned.

A government-guaranteed gold standard is not a gold standard. It is a government promise standard. It will be broken whenever politicians deem it convenient.

There are two kinds of gold standards. One is a government-guaranteed gold standard, which is preliminary to gold confiscation. The other is a gold coin standard. The difference is clear: the first is statist; the second is free market. As I wrote in 2003:

The State's gold standard is a preliminary to eventual confiscation or debasement. The State's promise of redemption on demand should not be trusted.

A gold coin standard by profit-seeking storage organizations can be trusted with less risk, but not if the storage is offered for free. There are no free lunches. Someone will eventually pay for free services. When it comes to fractional reserve banking, that someone is always the late-coming depositors.

This is why any call by conservatives for the State to adopt a gold standard is futile. No one will listen. Even if voters understood the case for a limited State, they would not be able to limit the State by a State-run gold standard. A State-run monetary system, with the exception only of Byzantium, becomes a debased standard.

This is why the free market is the only reliable source for the re-establishment of a gold standard. Honest money begins with these steps: (1) the revocation of legal tender laws that require people to accept the State's money; (2) the enforcement of contracts; (3) laws against fraud, which fractional reserve banking is. The free market can do the rest.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north201.html

Ron Paul is correct. The government should sell the gold. I would add only this: the form of the gold should be in the form of American eagles, and sold only to Americans -- heirs of the victims of Roosevelt's confiscation. I want Americans to get used to seeing and owning gold coins again.

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http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/697493/v_for_vendetta_guy_fawkes_mask11.jpg http://posterous.com/users/4wuf4tt8LZzb Jason Brizic myhighdividendstocks Jason Brizic
Fri, 06 May 2011 20:30:50 -0700 TIP OF THE WEEK - Opportunities to buy precious metals for procrastinators. http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/tip-of-the-week-opportunities-to-buy-precious http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/tip-of-the-week-opportunities-to-buy-precious Opportunities to buy precious metals for procrastinators.

Jason Brizic

May 6, 2011

You should have 20-30% of your non-house net worth in precious metals.  They are a hedge against massive price increases and hyperinflation.  I consider price increases of 10-20% per annum to be massive.  I consider hyperinflation price increases above 20% per annum.  Entrepreneurs can't calculate in an environment where prices increase above 20% per year.  The division of labor begins breaking down in the 20-30% range.


The precious metals (gold and silver) are a hedge against massive price increases.  They are not a hedge against low inflation.  Just look at precious metal prices from 1980 - 2000 for confirmation.  Silver took a beating this week.  It was down 29%.  Gold lost 6%.  Silver is more volitile than gold.


I think you should use 80% of your precious metals money to buy gold coins from your country's mint.  Buy 1 ounce and tenth ounce coins.  Buy 20% silver coins.  Buy 1 ounce silver coins and junk silver coins.


I think gold under $1,400 per oz. and silver under $30 per oz. will be good buys.  Don't buy gold and silver ETFs like GLD and SLV if you don't own any physical coins.


Buy from where ever you are comfortable: local coin dealers, EBay, Amazon.com, or my favorite www.apex.com .

For more tips, go here:

http://www.myhighdividendstocks.com/category/tip-of-the-week

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http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/697493/v_for_vendetta_guy_fawkes_mask11.jpg http://posterous.com/users/4wuf4tt8LZzb Jason Brizic myhighdividendstocks Jason Brizic
Sun, 01 May 2011 14:13:46 -0700 Farming outside the US for profit - an interview with Jim Rogers. http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/farming-outside-the-us-for-profit-an-intervie http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/farming-outside-the-us-for-profit-an-intervie The following interview of legendary investor, Jim Rogers, comes from Mianyville.com courtesy of Brett Owens. Rogers discusses inflation, the Federal Reserve, expatriation, China, and commodity investing (especially farming and energy).

http://m.minyanville.com/?guid=34223&catid=4

Rogers understands the Austrian school of economics, but he doesn't emphasize that China will experience a severe recession or depression before excellent investment opportunities are available. Asian high dividend stocks should be bought after the Chinese real estate and financial bubbles pop. Their currencies will strengthen versus the US dollar and new, middle class Asian consumers will buy their products.

Subscribe today for free at www.myhighdividedstocks.com/feed to discover high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

There are many high dividend energy stocks, but I haven't found any high dividend agriculture stocks other than Terra Nitrogen (TNH). I haven't done a complete analysis of TNH yet so don't consider this as a recommendation.

Be seeing you!

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http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/697493/v_for_vendetta_guy_fawkes_mask11.jpg http://posterous.com/users/4wuf4tt8LZzb Jason Brizic myhighdividendstocks Jason Brizic
Mon, 25 Apr 2011 11:41:59 -0700 Debunking Anti-Gold Propaganda. http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/debunking-anti-gold-propaganda http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/debunking-anti-gold-propaganda

Debunking Anti-Gold Propaganda

by Doug Casey
Casey Research

Recently by Doug Casey: Keeping Capital in a Depression

 

 

 

A meme is now circulating that gold is in a bubble and that it's time for the wise investor to sell. To me, that’s a ridiculous notion. Certainly a premature one.

It pays to remain as objective as you can be when analyzing any investment. People have a tendency to fall in love with an asset class, usually because it’s treated them so well. We saw that happen, most recently, with Internet stocks in the late ’90s and houses up to 2007. Investment bubbles are driven primarily by emotion, although there's always some rationale for the emotion to latch on to. Perversely, when it comes to investing, reason is recruited mainly to provide cover for passion and preconception.

In the same way, people tend to hate certain investments unreasonably, usually at the bottom of a bear market, after they've lost a lot of money and thinking about the asset means reliving the pain and loss. Love-and-hate cycles occur for all investment classes.

But there’s only one investment I can think of that many people either love or hate reflexively, almost without regard to market performance: gold. And, to a lesser degree, silver. It’s strange that these two metals provoke such powerful psychological reactions – especially among people who dislike them. Nobody has an instinctive hatred of iron, copper, aluminum or cobalt. The reason, of course, is that the main use of gold has always been as money. And people have strong feelings about money. Let’s spend a moment looking at how gold’s fundamentals fit in with the psychology of the current market.

What Gold Is – and Why It’s Hated

Let me first disclose that I’ve always been favorably inclined toward gold, simply because I think money is a good thing. Not everyone feels that way, however. Some, with a Platonic view, think that money and commercial activity in general are degrading and beneath the “better” sort of people – although they’re a little hazy about how mankind rose above the level of living hand-to-mouth, grubbing for roots and berries. Some think it’s “the root of all evil,” a view that reflects a certain attitude toward the material world in general. Some (who have actually read St. Paul) think it’s just the love of money that’s the root of all evil. Some others see the utility of money but think it should be controlled somehow – as if only the proper authorities knew how to manage the dangerous substance.

From an economic viewpoint, however, money is just a medium of exchange and a store of value. Efforts to turn it into a political football invariably are a sign of a hidden agenda or perhaps a psychological aberration. But, that said, money does have a moral as well as an economic significance. And it’s important to get that out in the open and have it understood. My view is that money is a high moral good. It represents all the good things you hope to have, do and provide in the future. In a manner of speaking, it’s distilled life. That’s why it’s important to have a sound money, one that isn’t subject to political manipulation.

Over the centuries many things have been used as money, prominently including cows, salt and seashells. Aristotle thought about this in the 4th century BCE and arrived at the five characteristics of a good money:

  • It should be durable (which is why, say, wheat isn’t a good money – it rots).
  • It should be divisible (which is why artwork isn’t a good money – you can’t cut up the Mona Lisa for change).
  • It should be convenient (which is why lead isn’t a good money – it just takes too much to be of value).
  • It should be consistent (which is one reason why land can’t be money – each piece is different).
  • And it should have value in itself (which is why paper money leads to trouble).

Of the 92 naturally occurring elements, gold (secondarily silver) has proved the best money. It’s not magic or superstition, any more than it is for iron to be best for building bridges and aluminum for building airplanes.

Of course we do use paper as money today, but only because it recently served as a receipt for actual money. Paper money (currency) historically has a half-life that depends on a number of factors. But it rarely lasts longer than the government that issues it. Gold is the best money because it doesn’t need to be “faith-based” or rely on a government.

There’s much more that can be said on this topic, and it’s important to grasp the essentials in order to understand the controversy about whether or not gold is in a bubble. But this isn’t the place for an extended explanation.

Keep these things in mind, though, as you listen to the current blather from talking heads about where gold is going. Most of them are just journalists, reporters that are parroting what they heard someone else say. And the “someone else” is usually a political apologist who works for a government. Or a hack economist who works for a bank, the IMF or a similar institution with an interest in the status quo of the last few generations. You should treat almost everything you hear about finance or economics in the popular media as no more than entertainment.

So let’s take some recent statements, assertions and opinions that have been promulgated in the media and analyze them. Many impress me as completely uninformed, even stupid. But since they’re floating around in the infosphere, I suppose they need to be addressed.

Misinformation and Disinformation

Gold is expensive.

This objection is worth considering – for any asset. In fact, it’s critical. We can determine the price of almost anything fairly easily today, but figuring out its value is as hard as it’s ever been. From the founding of the U.S. until 1933, the dollar was defined as 1/20th of an ounce of gold. From 1933 it was redefined as 1/35th of an ounce. After the 1971 dollar devaluation, the official price of the metal was raised to $42.22 – but that official number is meaningless, since nobody buys or sells the metal at that price. More importantly, people have gotten into the habit of giving the price of gold in dollars, rather than the value of the dollar in gold. But that’s another subject.

Here’s the crux of the argument. Before the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, a $20 bill was just a receipt for the deposit of one ounce of gold with the Treasury. The U.S. official money supply equated more or less with the amount of gold. Now, however, dollars are being created by the trillion, and nobody really knows how many more of them are going to be shazammed into existence.

It is hard to determine the value of anything when the inch marks on your yardstick keep drifting closer and closer together.

The smart money is long gone from gold.

This is an interesting assertion that I find based on nothing at all. Who really is the smart money? How do you really know that? And how do you know exactly what they own (except for, usually, many months after the fact) or what they plan on buying or selling? The fact is that very few billionaires (John Paulson perhaps best known of them) have declared a major position in the metal. Gold and gold stocks, as the following chart shows, are only a tiny proportion of the financial world’s assets, either absolutely or relative to where they've been in the past:

Image002

Gold is risky.

Risk is largely a function of price. And, as a general rule, the higher the price the higher the risk, simply because the supply is likely to go up and the demand to go down – leading to a lower price. So, yes, gold is riskier now, at $1,400, than it was at $700 or at $200. But even when it was at $35, there was a well-known financial commentator named Eliot Janeway (I always thought he was a fool and a blowhard) who was crowing that if the U.S. government didn’t support it at $35, it would fall to $8.

In any event, risk is relative. Stocks are very risky today. Bonds are ultra risky. Real estate is in an ongoing bear market. And the dollar is on its way to reaching its intrinsic value.

Yes, gold is risky at $1,400. But it is actually less risky than most alternatives.

Gold pays no interest.

This is kind of true. But only in the sense that a $100 bill pays no interest. You can get interest from anything that functions as money if it is lent out. Interest is the time premium of money. You will not get interest from either your $100 or from your gold unless you lend them to someone. But both the dollars and the gold will earn interest if you lend them out. The problem is that once you make a loan (even to a bank, in the form of a savings account), you may not even get your principal back, much less the interest.

Gold pays no dividends.

Of course it doesn’t. It also doesn't yield chocolate syrup. It’s a ridiculous objection, because only corporations pay dividends. It’s like expecting your Toyota in the driveway to pay a dividend, when only the corporation in Japan can do so. But if you want dividends related to gold, you can buy a successful gold mining stock.

Gold costs you insurance and storage.

This is arguably true. But it’s really a sophistic misdirection to which many people uncritically nod in agreement. You may very well want to insure and professionally store your gold. Just as you might your jewelry, your artwork and most valuable things you own. It’s even true of the share certificates for stocks you may own. It’s true of the assets in your mutual fund (where you pay for custody, plus a management fee).

You can avoid the cost of insurance and storage by burying gold in a safe place – something that’s not a practical option with most other valuable assets. But maybe you really don’t want to store and insure your gold, because the government may prove a greater threat than any common thief. And if you pay storage and insurance, they’ll definitely know how much you have and where it is.

Gold has no real use.

This assertion stems from a lack of knowledge of basic chemistry as well as economics. Yes, of course people have always liked gold for jewelry, and that’s a genuine use. It’s also good for dentistry and micro-circuitry. Owners of paper money, however, have found the stuff to be absolutely worthless hundreds of times in many score of countries.

In point of fact, gold is useful because it is the most malleable, the most ductile and the most corrosion resistant of all metals. That means it’s finding new uses literally every day. It’s also the second most conductive of heat and electricity, and the second most reflective (after silver). Gold is a hi-tech metal for these reasons. It can do things no other substance can and is part of the reason your computer works so well.

But all these reasons are strictly secondary, because gold’s main use has always been (and I’ll wager will be again) as money. Money is its highest and best use, and it’s an extremely important one.

The U.S. can, or will, sell its gold to pay its debt, depressing the market.

I find this assertion completely unrealistic. The U.S. government reports that it owns 265 million ounces of gold. Let’s say that’s worth about $400 billion right now. I’m afraid that’s chicken feed in today’s world. It’s only a quarter of this year’s federal deficit alone. It’s only half of one year’s trade deficit. It represents only about 5% of the dollars outside the U.S. The U.S. government may be the largest holder of gold in the world, but it owns less than 5% of the approximately 6 billion ounces above ground.

From the ‘60s until about 2000, most Western governments were selling gold from their treasuries, working on the belief it was a “barbarous relic.” Since then, governments in the advancing world – China, India, Russia and many other ex-socialist states – have been buying massive quantities.

Why? Because their main monetary asset is U.S. dollars, and they have come to realize those dollars are the unbacked liability of a bankrupt government. They’re becoming hot potatoes, Old Maid cards. But the dollars can be replaced with what? Sovereign wealth funds are using them to buy resources and industries, but those things aren’t money. And in the hands of bureaucrats, they’re guaranteed to be mismanaged. I expect a great deal of gold buying from governments around the world over the next few years. And it will be at much higher dollar prices.

High gold prices will bring on huge new production, which will depress its price.

This assertion shows a complete misunderstanding of the nature of the gold market. Gold production is now about 82.6 million ounces per year and has been trending slightly down for the last decade. That’s partly because at high prices miners tend to mine lower-grade ore. And partly because the world has been extensively explored, and most large, high-grade, easily exploited resources have already been put into production.

But new production is trivial relative to the 6 billion ounces now above ground, which only increases by about 1.3% annually. Gold isn’t consumed like wheat or even copper; its supply keeps slowly rising, like wealth in general. What really controls gold’s price is the desire of people to hold it, or hold other things – new production is a trivial influence.

That’s not to say things can’t change. The asteroids have lots of heavy metals, including gold; space exploration will make them available. Gigantic amounts of gold are dissolved in seawater and will perhaps someday be economically recoverable with biotech. It’s now possible to transmute metals, fulfilling the alchemists dream; perhaps someday this will be economic for gold. And nanotech may soon allow ultra-low-grade deposits of gold (and every other element) to be recovered profitably. But these things need not concern us as practical matters in the course of this bull market.

You should have only a small amount of gold, for insurance.

This argument is made by those who think gold is only going to be useful if civilization breaks down, when it could be an asset of last resort. In the meantime, they say, do something productive with your money…

This is poor speculative theory. The intelligent investor allocates his funds where it’s likely they’ll provide the best return, consistent with the risk, liquidity and volatility profile he wants to maintain. There are times when you should be greatly overweight in a single asset class – sometimes stocks, sometimes bonds, sometimes real estate, sometimes what-have-you. For the last 12 years, it’s been wise to be overweight in gold. You always want some gold, simply because it’s cash in the most basic form. But ten years from now, I suspect that will be a minimum. Right now it’s a maximum. The idea of keeping a constant, but insignificant, percentage in gold impresses me as poorly thought out.

Interest rates are at zero; gold will fall as they rise.

In principle, as interest rates rise, people tend to prefer holding currency deposits. So they tend to sell other assets, including gold, to own interest-earning cash. But there are other factors at work. What if the nominal interest rate is 20%, but the rate of currency depreciation is 40%? Then the real interest rate is minus 20%. This is more or less what happened in the late ‘70s, when both nominal rates and gold went up together. Right now governments all over the world are suppressing rates even while they’re greatly increasing the amount of money outstanding; this will eventually (read: soon) result in both much higher rates and a much higher general price level. At some point high real rates will be a factor in ending the gold bull market, but that time is many months or years in the future.

Gold sentiment is at an all-time high.

Although gold prices are at an all-time high in nominal terms, they are still nowhere near their highs in real terms, of about $2,500 (depending on how much credibility you give the government’s CPI numbers), reached in 1980. Gold sentiment is still quite subdued among the public; most of them barely know it even exists.

Some journalists like to point out that since there are a few (five, perhaps) gold dispensing machines in the world, including one in the U.S., that there’s a gold mania afoot. That’s ridiculous, although it shows a slowly awakening interest among people with assets.

Journalists also point to the numerous ads on late-night TV offering to buy old gold jewelry (generally at around a 50% discount from its metal value) as a sign of a gold bubble. But this is even more ridiculous, since the ads are inducing the unsophisticated, cash-strapped booboisie to sell the metal, not buy it.

You’ll know sentiment is at a high when major brokerage firms are hyping newly minted gold products, and Slime Magazine (if it still exists) has a cover showing a golden bull tearing apart the New York Stock Exchange. We’re a long way from that point.

Mining stocks are risky.

This is absolutely true. In general, mining is a horrible business. It requires gigantic fixed capital expense to build the mine, but only after numerous, expensive and unpredictable permitting issues are handled. Then the operation is immovable and subject to every political risk imaginable, not infrequently including nationalization. Add in continual and formidable technical issues of every description, compounded by unpredictable fluctuations in the price of the end product. Mining is a horrible business, and you’ll never find Graham-Dodd investors buying mining stocks.

All these problems (and many more that aren’t germane to this brief article), however, make them excellent speculative vehicles from time to time.

Mineral exploration stocks are very, very risky.

This is very, very true. There are thousands of little public companies, and some are just a couple steps up from a prospector wandering around with a mule. Others are fairly sophisticated, hi-tech operations. Exploration companies are often classed with mining companies, but they are actually very different animals. They aren’t so much running a business as engaging in a very expensive and long-odds treasure hunt.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that they are not only risky but extraordinarily volatile. The most you can lose is 100%, but the market cyclically goes up 10 to 1, with some stocks moving 1,000 to 1. That kind of volatility can be your best friend. Speculating in these issues, however, requires both expertise and a good sense of market timing. But they’re likely to be at the epicenter of the gold bubble when it arrives – even though few actually have any gold, except in their names.

Warren Buffett is a huge gold bear.

This is true, but irrelevant – entirely apart from suffering from the logical fallacy called “argument from authority.” But, nonetheless, when the world’s most successful investor speaks, it’s worth listening. Here's what Buffett recently said about gold in an interview with Ben Stein, another goldphobe: "You could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all – not some, all – of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?"

I’ve long considered Buffett an idiot savant – a genius at buying stocks but at nothing else. His statement is quite accurate, but completely meaningless. The same could be said of the U.S. dollar money supply – or even of the world inventory of steel and copper. These things represent potential but are not businesses or productive assets in themselves. Buffett is certainly not stupid, but he’s a shameless and intellectually dishonest sophist. And although a great investor, he’s neither an economist or someone who believes in free markets.

Gold is a religious statement.

Actually, since most religions have an otherworldly orientation, they’re at least subtly (and often stridently) anti-gold. But it is true that some promoters of gold seem to have an Elmer Gantry-like style. That, however, can be said of True Believers in anything, whether or not the belief itself has merit. In point of fact, I think it’s more true to say goldphobes suffer from a kind of religious hysteria, fervently believing in collectivism in general and the state in particular, with no regard to counter-arguments. Someone who understands why gold is money and why it is currently a good speculative vehicle is hardly making a religious statement. More likely he’s taking a scientific approach to economics and thinking for himself.

So Where Are We?

So these are some of the more egregious arguments against gold that are being brought forward today. Most of them are propounded by knaves, fools or the uninformed.

My own view should be clear from the responses I’ve given above. But let me clarify it a bit further. Historically – actually just up until the decades after World War I, when world governments started issuing paper currency with no relation to gold – the metal was cash, and it was used as money everywhere, on a daily basis. I believe that will again be the case in the fairly near future.

The question is: At what price will that occur, relative to other things? It’s not just a question of picking a dollar price, because the relative value of many things – houses, food, commodities, labor – have been distorted by a very long period of currency inflation, increased taxation and very burdensome regulation that started at the beginning of the last depression. Especially with the fantastic leaps in technology now being made and breathtaking advances that will soon occur, it’s hard to be sure exactly how values will realign after the Greater Depression ends. And we can’t know the exact manner in which it will end. Especially when you factor in the rise of China and India.

A guess? I’ll say the equivalent of about $5,000 an ounce of today’s dollars. And I feel pretty good about that number, considering where we are in the current gold bull market. Classic bull markets have three stages. We’ve long since left the “Stealth” stage – when few people even remembered gold existed, and those who did mocked the idea of owning it. We’re about to leave the “Wall of Worry” stage, when people notice it and the bulls and bears battle back and forth. I’ll conjecture that within the next year we’ll enter the “Mania” stage – when everybody, including governments, is buying gold, out of greed and fear. But also out of prudence.

The policies of Bernanke and Obama – but also of almost every other central bank and government in the world – are not just wrong. These people are, perversely, doing just the opposite of what should be done to cure the problems that have built up over decades. One consequence of their actions will be to ignite numerous other bubbles in various markets and countries. I expect the biggest bubble will be in gold, and the wildest one in mining and exploration stocks.

When will I sell out of gold and gold stocks? Of course, they don’t ring a bell at either the top or the bottom of the market. But I expect to be a seller when there really is a bubble, a mania, in all things gold-related. There’s a good chance that will coincide to some degree with a real bottom in conventional stocks. I don’t know what level that might be on the DJIA, but I’d think its average dividend yield might then be in the 6 to 8% area.

The bottom line is that gold and its friends are no longer cheap, but they have a long way – in both time and price – to run. Until they're done, I suggest you be right and sit tight.


If you take the time to learn more about gold and silver, you’ll realize quickly that both still have a long way to go in this bull market. And with China – and other countries – ready to dump the flailing U.S. dollar, it’s imperative to protect yourself with precious metals. Learn more about China’s secret plot here.

April 23, 2011

Doug Casey (send him mail) is a best-selling author and chairman of Casey Research, LLC., publishers of Casey’s International Speculator.

Copyright © 2001 Casey and Associates

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http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/697493/v_for_vendetta_guy_fawkes_mask11.jpg http://posterous.com/users/4wuf4tt8LZzb Jason Brizic myhighdividendstocks Jason Brizic
Fri, 15 Apr 2011 08:54:22 -0700 Keeping Capital in a Depression. http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/keeping-capital-in-a-depression http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/keeping-capital-in-a-depression

Keeping Capital in a Depression

by Doug Casey

Recently by Doug Casey: Save, Invest, Speculate, Trade, or Gamble?

 

 

 

Nothing is cheap in today’s investment world. Because of the trillions of currency units that governments all over the world have created – and are continuing to create – financial assets are grossly overpriced. Stocks, bonds, property, commodities and cash are no bargains. Meanwhile, real wages are slipping rapidly among those who are working, and a large portion of the population is unemployed or underemployed.

The next chapter in this sad drama will include a rapid rise in consumer prices. At the beginning of this year, we saw the grains – wheat, corn, soybeans and oats – go up an average of 36% within one month. In the same time frame, hogs were up 30.7%. Copper was up 29.1%. Oil was up 14%. Cotton was up 118%. Raw commodities are the first things to move in an inflationary boom, largely because they’re essential to everything. Retail prices are generally the last to move, partly because the labor market will remain soft and keep that component down, and partly because retailers cut their margins to retain customers and market share.

We are in a financial no-man’s land. What you should do about it presents some tough alternatives. “Saving” is compromised because of depreciating currency and artificially low interest rates. “Investing” is problematical because of a deteriorating economy, unpredictable and increasing regulation, rising interest rates and wildly fluctuating prices. “Speculation” is the best answer. But it may not suit everyone as a methodology.

There are, however, several other alternatives to dealing with the question “What should I do with my money now?” – active business, entrepreneurialism, innovation, “hoarding” and agriculture. There’s obviously some degree of overlap with these things, but they are essentially different in nature.

Active Business

Few large fortunes have been made by investing. Most are made by creating, building and running a business. But the same things that make investing hard today are going to make active business even harder. Sure, there will be plenty of people out there to hire – but in today’s litigious and regulated environment, an employee is a large potential liability as much as a current asset.

Business itself is seen as a convenient milk cow by bankrupt governments – and it’s much easier to tap small business than taxpayers at large. Big business (which I’ll arbitrarily define as companies with at least several thousand employees) actually encourages regulation and taxes, because their main competition is from small business – you – and they’re much more able to absorb the cost of new regulation and can hire lobbyists to influence its direction. Only a business that’s “too big to fail” can count on government help.

It’s clearly a double-edged sword, but running an active business is increasingly problematical. Unless it’s a special situation, I’d be inclined to sell a business, take the money, and run. It’s Atlas Shrugged time.

Entrepreneurialism

An entrepreneur is “one who takes between,” to go back to the French roots of the word. Buy here for a dollar, sell there for two dollars – a good business if you can do it with a million widgets, hopefully all at once and on credit. An entrepreneur ideally needs few employees and little fixed overhead. Just as a speculator capitalizes on distortions in the financial markets, an entrepreneur does so in the business world. The more distortions there are in the market, the more bankruptcies and distress sales, the more variation in prosperity and attitudes between countries, the more opportunities there are for the entrepreneur. The years to come are going to be tough on investors and businessmen, but full of opportunity for speculators and entrepreneurs. Keep your passports current, your powder dry, and your eyes open. I suggest you reform your thinking along those lines.

Innovation

The two mainsprings of human progress are saving (producing more than you consume and setting aside the difference) and new technology (improved ways of doing things). Innovation takes a certain kind of mind and a certain skill set. Not everyone can be an Edison, a Watt, a Wright or a Ford. But with more scientists and engineers alive today than have lived in all previous history put together, you can plan on lots more in the way of innovation. What you want to do is put yourself in front of innovation; even if you aren’t the innovator, you can be a facilitator – something like Steve Ballmer is to Bill Gates. It will give you an excuse to hang out with the younger generation and play amateur venture capitalist.

This argues for two things. One, reading very broadly (but especially in science), so that you can more easily make the correct decision as to which innovations will be profitable. Two, building enough capital to liberate your time to try something new and perhaps put money into start-ups. This thinking partly lay in back of our starting our Casey’s Extraordinary Technology service.

Hoarding

In the days when gold and silver were money, “saving” was actually identical with “hoarding.” The only difference was the connotation of the words. Today you can’t even hoard nickel and copper coins anymore because (unbeknownst to Boobus americanus) there’s very little of those metals left in either nickels or pennies – both of which will soon disappear from circulation anyway.

We’ve previously dismissed the foolish and anachronistic idea of saving with dollars in a bank – so what can you save with, other than metals? The answer is “useful things,” mainly household commodities. I’m not sure exactly how bad the Greater Depression will be or how long it will last, but it makes all the sense in the world to stockpile usable things, in lieu of monetary savings.

The things I’m talking about could be generally described as “consumer perishables.” Instead of putting $10,000 extra in the bank, go out and buy things like motor oil, ammunition, light bulbs, toilet paper, cigarettes, liquor, soap, sugar and dried beans. There are many advantages to this.

Taxes – As these things go up in price and you consume them, you won’t have any resulting taxes, as you would for a successful investment. And you’ll beat the VAT, which we’ll surely see.

Volume Savings – When you buy a whole bunch at once, especially when Walmart or Costco has them on sale, you’ll greatly reduce your cost.

Convenience – You’ll have them all now and won’t have to waste time getting them later. Especially if they’re no longer readily available.

There are hundreds of items to put on the list and much more to be said about the whole approach. The idea is basically that of my old friend John Pugsley, which he explained fully in his book The Alpha Strategy. Take this point very seriously. It’s something absolutely everybody can and should do.

Agriculture

During the last generation, mothers wanted their kids to grow up and be investment bankers. That thought will be totally banished soon, and for a long time. I suspect farmers and ranchers will become the next paradigm of success, after being viewed as backward hayseeds for generations.

Agriculture isn’t an easy business, and it has plenty of risks. But there’s always going to be a demand for its products, and I suspect the margins are going to stay high for a long time to come. Why? There’s still plenty of potential farmland around the world that’s wild or fallow, but politics is likely to keep it that way. Population won’t be growing that much (and will be falling in the developed world), but people will be wealthier and want to eat better. So you want the kind of food that people with some money eat.

I’m not crazy about commodity-type foods, like wheat, soy and corn; these are high-volume, industrial-style foods, subject to political interference. And they’re not important as foods for wealthy people, which is the profitable part of the market. Besides, grains are where everybody’s attention is directed.

But there are other reasons I’m not wild about owning any amber waves of grain. Anything you want to plant will practically require the use of a genetically modified (GM) seed from Monsanto. I’m not sure I really care if it’s GM; all foods have been genetically modified over the millennia just by virtue of cultivation. And $1 paid to Monsanto typically not only yields the farmer $5 of extra return, but produces lots of extra food – which helps everybody. But I wouldn’t be surprised if someday the giant monocultures of plants, all with totally identical purchased seeds, don’t result in some kind of catastrophic crop failure. This is a subject for another time, but it’s a thought to keep in mind.

In any event, agricultural land is no longer cheap. But I don’t suggest you look at thousands of acres to plant grain. Niche markets with niche products are the way to fly.

I suggest up-market specialty products – exotic fruits and vegetables, fish, dairy and beef. The problem is that in “advanced” countries – prominently including the U.S. – national, state and local governments make the small commercial producers’ lives absolutely miserable. Maybe you can grow stuff, but it’s extremely costly in terms of paperwork and legal fees to sell, especially if the product is animal based – meat, milk, cheese and such. Niche foods are, however, potentially a very good business. Eternal optimist that I am, I see one of the many benefits of the impending bankruptcy of most governments as again making it feasible to grow and sell food locally.

Above all, though, this isn’t the time for business as usual. You’ll notice that “Working in a conventional job” didn’t occur on the list above. And I pity the poor fools working for some corporation, hoping things get better.


Get more valuable advice on how to survive in a crisis in The Casey Report – a monthly newsletter brimming with top-notch analysis of U.S. and world events, economic research, trend forecasts and investment advice for the big-picture investor. Details in this free report.

April 14, 2011

Doug Casey (send him mail) is a best-selling author and chairman of Casey Research, LLC., publishers of Casey’s International Speculator.

Copyright © 2001 Casey and Associates

The Best of Doug Casey

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Thu, 14 Apr 2011 13:01:19 -0700 Your Gold Coins. http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/your-gold-coins http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/your-gold-coins

Your Gold Coins

Gary North

Reality Check (April 12, 2011)

If you did what Bill Bonner and I have been recommending for a decade, you own gold. Bonner began promoting the purchase of gold in the year 2000. I strongly promoted this for my subscribers after September 11, 2001, when the Federal Reserve began pumping up the monetary base in earnest. Neither of us has ever stopped recommending holding money in gold.

I have stressed holding coins, especially tenth-ounce American gold eagles.

I am writing this for those readers who did what I recommended, have quadrupled their money (on paper and in digits), but who may be getting cold feet.

There are good reasons for buying gold. But you should have an exit strategy in mind. You need to consider this.

http://www.garynorth.com/public/7880.cfm

We are told by the mainstream financial media, which never told investors to buy gold over the last decade, that gold is in the final phase of a bubble market. But how can any market be a bubble market when the mainstream financial media are not running report after report on the bubble, telling readers and viewers about how much money people are making.

What mainstream financial outlet warned investors loud and clear, issue after issue, in 1999 that the dot.com market was a bubble? I told my subscribers in February and March of 2000 that it was, and that they should get out. But I published a newsletter. I was not mainstream.

What major outlet warned people in 2006-2007 that the real estate market was a bubble, that wise investors were getting out? I did in November 2005.

Bubbles always continue for months or even years after old timers say they will pop. Old timers have trouble estimating the fear of the buyers at being left out and the fear of lenders at being left out. The two sides -- debtors and lenders -- keep the dance of doom going much longer than old timers can imagine possible. But eventually the dance ends.

I spoke at Lew Rockwell's conference. One of the speakers is a banker. He lives in Las Vegas. He was taught by Austrian School economist Murray Rothbard. He earned a masters degree in economics. Then he went into banking.

As an Austrian School economist, he understands the business cycle. He understands that the Federal Reserve system has pumped money into the economy, creating a housing bubble since 1996. He knows this boom will bust.

He has no illusions about this housing market. Compared to him, I have been Pollyanna. He spoke of the mental outlook of the builders in Las Vegas. They all know it can't go on, but they are determined to party until it does. "Then they will declare bankruptcy and start over," he said. This is their exit strategy.

He was correct. It happened. He lost his job as a Las Vegas banker. He is now a senior staff member at the Mises Institute.

I went on to write the following:

I think a squeeze is coming that will affect the entire banking system. The madness of bankers has become unprecedented. They have forgotten about loan diversification. They have been caught up in Greenspan's counter-cyclical policy of lowering the federal funds rate. Now this policy is being reversed. Rates are climbing. This will contract the loan market. Banks will wind up sitting on top of bad loans of all kinds because the American economy is now housing-sale driven.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north416.html

But I was on the fringes of the investment community. The bubble was about to burst, but the media attracted viewers and readers by staying on the bandwagon. To call attention to what should have been obvious would have reduced the audience. The editors knew better.

So, when I read articles about gold in a true bubble market, I know it isn't. The salaried reporters with no savings, underwater in their homes, and in a dying industry are merely writing what their editors think will sell.

What sells? Articles that confirm what conventional viewers and readers want to hear, namely, that they were not really losers by staying out of the gold market (they were), and that those who buy good now will lose everything (they won't), and that now is a good time to buy stocks and bonds (it hasn't been ever since March 2000).

Mark Faber, who recommends owning gold as a hedge against a declining dollar, recently wrote this: "In my opinion the Fed funds rate should be at 5% . . . That will provide real interest rates. I don't think the Fed will increase interest rates to a positive real rate. So, I'd say to an investor, he should have at least 20 to 30 percent of his money in precious metals."

When asked about his opinion about renewed fears of a bubble forming in the gold market, the student of the Austrian School of economics theory scoffed at the pundits who say the gold trade has become crowded. Faber said he routinely sees less than 5% of attendees at his speaking engagements raise their hands during his casual sentiment polls regarding the precious metals. Sometimes he sees no hands raised, he said.

http://bit.ly/FaberGold

There are many ways to own gold. The ones that most investors choose, and which most investors will rush into during the final phase of the bubble, is in fact not gold. It is a promise to invest in gold. It could be an ETF, which is a form of derivative. It may be a commodity futures contract -- another promise.

But what about gold, in contrast to a promise -- "cross my leveraged heart and hope to die" -- to invest in gold on your behalf?

Gold coins are gold.

WHY GOLD COINS?

The problem with today's economy is that it is built on promises and trust. It is therefore built on debt.

In the United States, the financial promises always come back to these:

1. The Federal Reserve System will remain the lender of last resort. 2. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will pay off all bank accounts up to $250,000. 3. The U.S government stands behind the FDIC's promise with a $600 billion line of credit. 4. The government can get this money from the Federal Reserve System, if necessary.

The problem with these promises is this: the ultimate insurer -- the FED -- can fulfill its obligations in a deflationary crisis only by hyperinflation. That means that the only sure guarantee against the systemic failure of the American banking system is the destruction of the dollar.

If we get the latter, do you want promises to pay gold, which can be settled legally by the payment of digital dollars? Or do you want coins where you can get your hands on them?

On the other hand, if the FED ever refuses to create money, and if the banking system then begins to implode, do you want promises to pay that were issued by a limited liability corporation, such as a futures exchange?

In between hyperinflation and a deflationary banking collapse, people can buy and sell promises to pay gold. They can pay 28% on all profits (no capital gains protection). They can become self-conscious speculators. There is nothing wrong with this.

But what if you are speculating against long-term price deflation? Then you want paper money. But paper money leaves you at the mercy of the Federal Reserve System and the commercial banking system. Mass inflation could appear rapidly (up to 20% price increases), followed by hyperinflation (anything from 20% to infinity).

What if you want an asset that will do well in mass inflation or hyperinflation, but which will not do as badly as most other leveraged capital assets in a banking collapse?

I keep getting this answer: gold coins.

BUT WHICH GOLD COINS?

That depends on what you are trying to hedge against.

If you are a national living in a country whose mint produces gold coins, buy those gold coins. If you are ever in an emergency situation where you need gold fast, and you want to barter it for something you really need, the person on the other side of the transaction will recognize the mint's stamp. He will be more likely to barter.

Do you want a one-ounce coin? Not if you are bartering for small items. You want the smallest-weight coin that your national mint produces. On the other hand, if you want gold as an investment, for which you plan to exchange your coins for digits in a bank, you should buy the most common one-ounce coin with the lowest premium: the Krugerrand. This low premium is consistent. You buy low; you sell low.

If you want something in between, buy a one-ounce coin from your national mint.

The tenth-ounce American eagle commands a premium above the one-ounce eagle these days. This could go away in a selling panic. Be aware of this investment threat.

Americans do not have a true free market with coins produced by the U.S. Mint. Ron Paul held hearings on this issue recently. The Mint keeps getting back-logged with orders during panic-driven periods. It sells only to coin dealers. This creates a premium for coins when these logjams occur. You can read about the problems here:

http://bit.ly/TooFewCoins

PROCRASTINATORS PAY PREMIUMS

Most people listen to a story for years before taking action. This has surely been true of the story of gold. When Gordon Brown, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, sold off half of Britain's gold, 1999-2002, he depressed the world price. He sold it at an average price of $276 per ounce.

http://bit.ly/BrownGold

This was a massive transfer of wealth from the British government to other central banks, which bought most of the gold. This kept down the market price, as central banks shifted demand from the private markets to the Bank of England's bars of gold.

This was the last chance for gold speculators to get in on the deal cheap. Not many people did, of course, because not many people ever buy close to the bottom of any market.

So, gold has steadily moved higher over the last decade. Still, the procrastinators procrastinate.

I don't mean Joe Lunchbucket and Tom Temp. The vast majority of Americans have no liquid savings above a few thousand dollars in the bank. Fewer than 50% have pensions of any size, and the money in these tax-deferred accounts are not at their disposal. The funds they can invest in are not related to gold. They are categories that will keep the fund managers from a lawsuit when markets collapse: American stocks, American bonds, and Treasury debt.

Gold is an investment asset. It therefore will not become popular short of an economic collapse -- hyperinflation followed by a depression. The average person owns no gold coins, nor will he anytime soon.

Where would he buy them? How could 100 million households buy a single gold coin per household? This would be impossible. There are only a few small coin stores in any community. They are mostly mom-and-pop outfits. The U.S. Mint could not meet the demand.

When Wal-Mart has a gold coin section in the jewelry department, then we can start talking about a possible bubble in gold. Not until then.

As more people on the fringe of the Tea Party find out about American gold eagles, they will start buying. This will force up the coins' premiums.

As word gets out about the scarcity of small-weight gold coins, there will be more interest in owning them.

As word gets out that the Federal Reserve's exit plan is a myth, they will start looking for hedges. Gold is a hedge against serious price inflation.

The government is working hard for existing gold coin owners. The government clearly cannot bring the budget deficit under control. Congress has no intention of doing so. When the government can borrow $1.6 trillion a year at rates as low as four-one-hundredths of a percent (90-day) to under 3% (7 years), why should we expect Congress to cut spending?

CONCLUSION

If you have yet to buy a single gold coin, buy a tenth-ounce American eagle to get started. That will not bankrupt you. It will get you over the hump.

Most Americans will never take this initial step. Those who procrastinate will pay a high premium when they at last think: "Maybe I really do need some gold." If you don't know where to start looking, start here:

http://bit.ly/GoldEagles

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Sat, 02 Apr 2011 12:48:32 -0700 Marc Faber says gold headed higher long term. http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/marc-faber-says-gold-headed-higher-long-term http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/marc-faber-says-gold-headed-higher-long-term

Swiss hedge fund manager, Marc Faber, says gold is going much high in the long run.  Central bankers around the world continue to print massive quantities of money.  All that money will be converted into the M1 measure of the money supply through the fractional reserve banking process.  I agree with him.  Therefore, you should have 20-30% of you net worth in precious metals.

I recommend that gold coins should make up 80% of your PMs and silver coins should make up the remaining 20%.

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INTERNATIONAL. Marc Faber the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor says it is a big error to print money because it rarely flows into the assets central banks aim to boost. He says more people have already sold their gold than have increased their positions and he doesn’t think gold is in a bubble.

Speaking from Mexico City to Matt Miller and Carol Massar on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart" on Wednesday ahead of a speech titled "When everything else fails, policy makers can always be sure of immortality by making spectacular errors" Faber said: "A big error is to print money. I think it doesn't help in the long run. It can give a temporary boost to economic activity but it doesn't lead to sustained economic growth."

"In fact it creates a mispricing of assets and goods & services and has negative implications on the pricing mechanism," he added

Printing money is the easy part of it, knowing where it will flow to is trickier he noted, adding that money printing in the US hasn't flown into the assets the Federal Reserve wants to boost, namely housing. Instead it created other bubbles overseas and in commodities.

Does he expect further easing?

"For sure there will be QE3, but not right away", Faber said, suggesting the Fed would like to see a correction of up to 20% in equities and then" to have an excuse for QE3".

"My view is there will be QE3, QE4, QE5, QE6......until QE26, until the whole system breaks down," he said

Faber, who turned bearish shortly before the 2007-2009 bear market, says QE2 is fully discounted in the markets. He expects some seasonal strength in April, perhaps a new high, but then we will have a more "significant setback in May, June".

What would be the impact of the Fed stopping QE2 today on the market?

The market will go down,  however "the market is designed to go up and down. That is the purpose of having a market economy," he said.

He went on noting that the marginal impact of printing money diminishes, "so every times you need to print more money to push the markets higher".

Faber said the US economy is already out of control and he sees a need for every interest group in the US to make sacrifices.

In the latest edition of the Gloom Boom & Doom report he writes: A level-headed, knowledgeable, and intelligent American friend of mine (she has been buying gold for years) recently observed that, “Only when the American people insist that sound business practices and moral standards be brought back will we be able to give the people of this country a future.” Unfortunately, I believe that the ongoing moral decay among US politicians and the business elite, the irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies, the decline in educational standards and infrastructure, the trade and current account deficit, the weak US dollar, and the heavy- handed and ambiguous meddling in foreign affairs by US officials, are all pieces in a puzzle, which when assembled reads: Failed State.

Where would he suggest investors put their money at this point?

In general terms, Faber recommends real estate, equities, commodities and precious metals.

"An investor should have at least 25%-30% in precious metals," he suggested as he doesn't think the Fed will increase rates to a positive real rate.

Faber also warned precious metals could correct but remain poised to go much higher in the long run and suggested buying the dips.

"I think they [Precious Metals] could also correct," because the breakout in gold above the November-January high is not convincing, "but in the long run with Bernanke at the Fed and Mr. Obama maybe another six years at the White House, gold will go substantially higher," he said.

The price of spot gold for immediate delivery ended March at a new monthly-close record of US$1,439 per ounce at the London Fix.

Thursday saw the Spot Gold Price in Dollars complete its 9th quarterly gain in succession – the longest run since 1979 according to Bloomberg data.

Faber said the number of people owning gold is much lower than many believe.

"Calm down about everybody being long precious metals" he told the Bloomberg anchors. More people have already sold their gold than have increased their position.

"I don't think gold is in a bubble," he stressed.

In fact, "gold is very cheap in comparison to the money and the credit that has been created and in comparison to the size of financial assets in the world," Faber added.

The price of gold slumped 1.4% lunchtime Friday in London, falling back from its highest-ever monthly close as the Dollar jumped on news of stronger-than-expected US jobs hiring in March.

"What we have to see now is how gold fares in an environment of rising interest rates, where holding a non-yielding asset goes against you," reckons RBS commodity strategist Nick Moore, speaking to Reuters.

Note:  Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Co in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong.

Since 1973, he has lived in Asia. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK). In June 1990, he set up his own business which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.

In 2000 Faber decided to spend more time writing his newsletters as well as growing his advisory business. He moved back to his home in Chiang Mai, Thailand, maintaining only a small administrative office in Hong Kong.

Dr Faber publishes a widely read monthly investment newsletter 'The Gloom Boom & Doom Report'  which highlights unusual investment opportunities, and is the author of several books.

Link to original article: http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=51976&t=1&cg=4 

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Thu, 03 Mar 2011 13:25:21 -0800 Marc Faber's March Outlook: Falling Stocks, Wicked Inflation, and Middle East Turmoil. http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/marc-fabers-march-outlook-falling-stocks-wick http://myhighdividendstocks.posterous.com/marc-fabers-march-outlook-falling-stocks-wick

Image001

Marc Faber’s March Outlook: Falling Stocks, Wicked Inflation, and Middle East Turmoil

By Nathaniel Crawford Mar 1, 2011, 12:48 AM Author's Website  

Marc Faber is out with his latest issue of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, which is always a must read for serious investors. This month’s report covers his outlook for the stock market, gold, oil, and the future for the US and global economy. Here are some of the highlights:

1. Stock Market–Still bearish in the short-term. Faber cautions against being bearish longer-term as long as the world is printing money, which will continue to inflate nominal stock prices. That said, technical indicators suggest a market correction. In particular, Faber notes the declining number of new 52 week highs, overly optimistic sentiment, and breakdowns in major stocks like Hewlett-Packard and Wal-mart. Furthermore, corporate insiders are selling stocks at a furious pace (855-1), indicating that they believe now is time to take profits, not risks.

2. Emerging Markets—Faber is still bearish on emerging markets in the short-term, and he expects world markets to correct further. However, emerging markets should be bought on the decline, especially since many of them are already down from their November 2010 highs. He notes that many institutions have been rotating out of EM and into developed markets, despite EM having better fundamentals. Some EM stocks have fallen 20-30%, which makes them a good value compared to US stocks. EM markets with the lowest forward PE ratios are Russia, Hungary, Turkey, and Brazil, which are good places to invest. Other markets to consider are Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore where you can get good dividend yields.

3. Gold—To Faber the risk concerning gold is not whether it goes up or down, but the risk lies in not owning any of it in your portfolio. Gold could face a correction, but this does not bother him. He advises people to continue to accumulate gold and silver by dollar cost averaging every month. Strong fundamentals favor gold long term–not just because of money printing by central banks, but also because demand from emerging markets like China are increasing at an extraordinary rate. In 2010 China and India accounted for 50% of total gold demand in 2010. This number will only increase, providing strong support to the gold price.

4. Oil and Energy Stocks–The price of oil will remain high for the foreseeable future because of the unrest and likely further deterioration in the Middle East, along with inflationary policies by the world’s major central banks. Faber postulates that Pakistan could be the next domino to fall which would be a catastrophe for the world as it has nuclear weapons. While oil has spiked to $100 recently (WTI Crude), Faber thinks it will remain above $90 due to these these factors. Regarding energy stocks, they have a had a nice run, and investors should take profits or wait for a pull back before initiating new positions. Favorites are Chesapeake Energy and Suncor Energy.

5. Retail Stocks–Faber thinks retails stocks are vulnerable right now as rising food and oil prices reduce consumer spending. Wal-Mart is the classic example of difficult conditions for retails stocks, after the retailer reported another decrease in same store sales. If you want a real proxy for how the economy is doing, follow Wal-Mart’s stock price which has been flat for the past 2 years.  Faber even advises people to short the Retail Index (RTH) with a tight stop-loss.

Link to original article: http://wallstreetpit.com/64261-marc-fabers-march-outlook-falling-stocks-wicked-inflation-and-middle-east-turmoil

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