My High Dividend Stocks Blog

My High Dividend Stocks
This is my high dividend stocks site where I help site members find high dividend stocks with earning power and strong balance sheets.

The Soveriegn Debt Crisis in Europe and What It Means to Your Investments.

European Union bureaucrats are fessing up that the Greek government still can’t pay its bills.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-fall-on-greece-debt-restructure-news-2012-07-24

This news tanked markets in the US.  Anyone who is surprised by this news has not been paying attention to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.  This crisis is going to get worse when Greece gets bailed out for a second or third time.  Portugal, Italy, and Spain will be back for more bailouts of their own.  Where will the money come from.  The European Central Bank will print Euros.  The money will go to the Northern European banks who will be scared to lend it, so they will buy more bad debt of the PIIGS.

I would stay out of the stock market until this sovereign debt crisis has run its course.  You will know it is over when stock prices drop 40% - 60% from their May 2012 highs of about 13,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  Well run companies with fat dividend yields and decent balance sheets like Safe Bulkers (SB) can have their stock price cut from $6.00 per share down to $2.50 per share like in 2008-2009.  Safe Bulkers fell precipitously from its 2008 IPO price of $19.00 per share down to about $2.50 at the height of the financial crisis.

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I’m spending my time during the sovereign debt crisis analyzing stocks to find the best ones to buy in the aftermath and at what price.  This crisis will take a long time to unravel.

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A Review of Safe Bulkers (SB) 3Q2011 Financials

There was nothing special or concerning in Safe Bulkers (SB) third quarter 2011 financial report.

http://www.safebulkers.com/sbpr101711.pdf

This stock is a value buy under $7.00 per share, but there is significant downside risk due to deteriorating world economic conditions.  The dry bulk shipping market has an oversupply of ships and demand for shipping services at current prices is eroding due to a worldwide recession.  I think there will be another opportunity to buy SB for $2 - $3 per share like in March 2009.

DIVIDEND RECORD

Safe Bulkers is a high dividend stock.  It is currently yielding 8.93% ($0.60 annual DIV/$6.72 share price).

Safe Bulker’s dividend record remains unchanged.  The company management will pay its 14th consecutive dividend payment since the company’s IPO in 2008.  The dividend is unchanged at $0.15 per share.  The dividend payout ratio increased to 53.5% ($0.15 DIV/$0.28 EPS) from 45.5% last quarter ($0.15 DIV/$0.33 EPS).  I will become concerned when this value goes above 80%.  There diminished earnings are more than enough to pay the dividend in the future.

EARNING POWER

Safe Bulkers’ earning power will continue to decline as the world economic recession continues.  Several of its ships will have to take extremely low charter rates in the next few quarters.  The ships at the bottom of this graph will need to find charters in the dismal spot market.  The Pedhoulas Leader, Venus Heritage, and Venus History have charters that end in October 2011.  The Andreas K and the Panayiota K have charters that end in April and May 2012 respectively.  These ships will be a drag on earnings.

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Net income for the third quarter of 2011 decreased by 10% to $19.8 million from $22.0 million during the same period in 2010.  Net income for the first nine months of 2011 decreased by 16% to $66.2 million from $78.5 million during the same period in 2010.  The company’s management reported that the decrease in net income was mostly attributed to: slightly higher net revenues offset by a lower time charter equivalent (TCE) rate, higher vessel operating expenses, increased depreciation, losses on interest rate derivatives contracts, a decrease in interest expense, and some other small financial costs.  For details see their financial statement (linked above).

From Zack’s we read: Safe Bulkers (NYSE:SB - Snapshot Report) had sales growth of 1.4% during the last fiscal year. The company has reported $165.6 million in sales over the past 12 months and is expected to report $196.9 million in sales in the next fiscal year.  http://www.zacks.com/research/get_news.php?id=293l8525 .

The higher sales will come from some newbuild ships that are starting service in 2012.  Yawn!  Nothing exciting here and that’s good.  At least you can understand how Safe Bulkers earns its profits (unlike financial institutions and insurance companies).

BALANCE SHEET

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Current asset decreased quite a bit.  They gained possession of the MV Venus History on September 9th, 2011.  That accounts for the gains in Vessels, net.  And they received some advances for vessel acquisition.  All that added up to a 2.9% increase in total assets.

It is nice to see Safe Bulkers paying down some of their debts.  Total liabilities at the end of December 2010 were $561.239 million.  Total liabilities have dropped to $510.035 million as of September 2011.  This improved their overall balance sheet, but they are a little strapped for cash right now.

Book value per share improved from $3.70 in December 2010 to $4.50 in September 2011.  This is a nice increase of 21.6% in book value per share.

CONCLUSION

Safe Bulkers remains a buy below $7.00.  There is downside risk due to the world economy in recession.   You will have an opportunity to buy below book value.  I’m waiting for lows like in March 2009 (approx $2.00 - $3.00 per share).  I don’t own Safe Bulkers yet.

The left side of the following chart scares me.  Nothing has been solved in the world economy.  There is another financial crisis coming.  SB’s stock price will be a victim.  That huge decline is more than enough to wipe out any high dividend gains.

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Safe Bulkers (SB) reported 3Q2011 financials yesterday. It is yielding 9.13%

My current favorite high dividend stock , Safe Bulkers (SB), reported third quarter financials yesterday. 

http://www.safebulkers.com/sbpr101711.pdf

In summary, they will continue to pay their $0.15 quarterly dividend.  Safe Bulker’s dividend currently yields 9.13%.  Their dividend payout ratio remains around a conservative 50% level.  Earnings have decreased a few percentage points consistent with a horrible market in dry bulk shipping.  The balance sheet results were mixed.  Shareholder equity was up good, but current ratio and quick ratio were both down.

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I will provide in-depth analysis tomorrow.

CONCLUSION – Safe Bulkers remains a buy below $7.00 per share.  However, worldwide double dip recession will take the American stock market and Safe Bulkers lower.  I think there will be opportunities to buy SB below $5.00 per share.  I’m waiting to get closer to the bottom.

Disclosure: I don’t own Safe Bulkers, but I want to.

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Safe Bulkers will report 3Q2011 financials on October 17th, 2011

One of my favorite high dividend stocks, Safe Bulkers (SB), will report its 3Q financials after the market closes on Monday October 17th, 2011.  Unnamed, faceless Wall Street analysts expect between $1.43 - $1.53 in earnings for 2011.  SB earned $0.41 in 1Q2011 and $0.27 in 2Q2011 for a total of $0.68 for the first six months of 2011.  Safe Bulkers needs to earn $0.38 in each of the next quarters to meet estimates.

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They might meet these estimates because the Baltic Dry Index has increased slightly in 3Q2011 compared to 2Q2011.  The stock price will get hammered if the S&P turns down, the Baltic Dry Index turns down, or it the EPS numbers are below estimates.  We haven’t seen the bottom in Safe Bulkers yet.

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press release

Oct. 11, 2011, 9:26 a.m. EDT

Safe Bulkers, Inc. Sets Date for Third Quarter 2011 Results, Dividend Announcement, Conference Call and Webcast

Earnings Release: Monday, October 17, 2011, After Market Closes; Conference Call and Webcast: Tuesday, October 18, 2011 at 09:00 A.M. EDT

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ATHENS, GREECE, Oct 11, 2011 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Safe Bulkers, Inc. (the Company) /quotes/zigman/512899/quotes/nls/sb SB +2.21% , an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services, announced today that it will release its results for the quarter ended September 30, 2011 after the market closes in New York on Monday, October 17, 2011. The Company also expects to announce the declaration of a dividend for the third quarter 2011 at that time.

On Tuesday, October 18, 2011 at 9:00 A.M. EDT, the Company's management team will host a conference call to discuss the financial results.

Conference Call details: Participants should dial into the call 10 minutes before the scheduled time using the following numbers: 1 (866) 819-7111 (US Toll Free Dial In), 0(800) 953-0329 (UK Toll Free Dial In) or +44 (0)1452-542-301 (Standard International Dial In). Please quote "Safe Bulkers" to the operator.

A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available until October 25, 2011 by dialing 1 (866) 247-4222 (US Toll Free Dial In), 0(800) 953-1533 (UK Toll Free Dial In) or +44 (0)1452 550-000 (Standard International Dial In). Access Code: 1859591#

Slides and audio webcast: There will also be a live, and then archived, webcast of the conference call, available through the Company's website ( www.safebulkers.com ). Participants to the live webcast should register on the website approximately 10 minutes prior to the start of the webcast.

About Safe Bulkers, Inc. The Company is an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services, transporting bulk cargoes, particularly coal, grain and iron ore, along worldwide shipping routes for some of the world's largest users of marine drybulk transportation services. The Company's common stock is listed on the NYSE, where it trades under the symbol "SB." The Company's current fleet consists of 17 drybulk vessels, all built post-2003, and the Company has contracted to acquire 10 additional drybulk newbuild vessels to be delivered at various times through 2014.

Link to original press release: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/safe-bulkers-inc-sets-date-for-third-quarter-2011-results-dividend-announcement-conference-call-and-webcast-2011-10-11?reflink=MW_news_stmp

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Safe Bulkers, Inc. Announces a Two-Year Time Charter With a Forward Delivery Date for a Kamsarmax Newbuild Vessel at $13,250 Gross Daily Rate

Safe Bulkers, Inc. Announces a Two-Year Time Charter With a Forward Delivery Date for a Kamsarmax Newbuild Vessel at $13,250 Gross Daily Rate

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ATHENS, GREECE, Oct 07, 2011 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Safe Bulkers, Inc. (the "Company") /quotes/zigman/512899/quotes/nls/sb SB -2.74% , announced today that it has entered into a new period time charter for a 82,000 dwt, Chinese built, Kamsarmax class vessel, for a duration of 24 to 27 months, with a forward delivery date within the second or the third quarter of 2012, at a gross daily charter rate of $13,250, less 4.75% total commissions. The charter is expected to commence upon delivery from the shipyard.

As of today, the contracted employment of fleet ownership days for the full year 2011, 2012 and 2013 is 94%, 64% and 57% respectively. Contracted employment includes vessels which are scheduled to be delivered to us in the future.

Dr. Loukas Barmparis, President of the Company, said: "The new two-year time charter secures employment for one of our Chinese newbuild Kamsarmax class vessels and expands our charter coverage for the coming two years."

Link to original press release: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/safe-bulkers-inc-announces-a-two-year-time-charter-with-a-forward-delivery-date-for-a-kamsarmax-newbuild-vessel-at-13250-gross-daily-rate-2011-10-07?reflink=MW_news_stmp

That is really cheap.  Most of their ships are rented out for between $20,000 and $24,000 per day.  It was a wise move to lock in this ship for two years because of the coming worldwide recession that will hit the dry bulk shipping rates harder than the present.

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Don't buy Safe Bulkers yet even though it is below $7.00

Safe Bulkers has been absolutely hammered since April of 2011, but don't buy it yet.  I know it is in value territory right now.  But trust me...it will go lower with the world economy because dry bulk shipping rates are affected by the world economy.  Wait until the technicals show a bottom for this excellent dividend company.
 
You can read all my articles on Safe Bulkers fundamentals by clicking on this link: http://www.myhighdividendstocks.com/category/high-dividend-stocks/sb
 
 
Here is the link to the SB chart if it doesn't appear above: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SB&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p02710131286
 
The technicals I'm looking for are the CCI coming out of the red zone, the price lifting off the lower Bollinger Band, and the MACD turning upward.
 
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Safe Bulkers on sale, but wait for the bottom.

 
It suggest that the recent 16% in the Baltic Dry Index is forecasting improvement to worldwide economic conditions.  This is nothing but Keynesian wishful thinking.  Government debt crises all over the world coupled with very high unemployment and massive quantities of fiat money printing will sink economies from here.  I like Safe Bulkers, but you will be able to buy it much cheaper than today.
 
It isn't done going down.
 
 
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An opportunity to pick up Safebulkers (SB) below $7.00 per share (9.6% dividend yield) will come again.

You had your chance to buy Safebulkers (SB) below $7.00 like I recommended: http://www.myhighdividendstocks.com/category/high-dividend-stocks/sb 
 
SB has gained 21% ($6.20 to $7.56) since its 52 week bottom on August 8th, 2011.  Safebulkers was yielding 9.6% at the bottom also.  It didn't expect you to buy at the exact bottom.  If you used my combination of technical indicators: CCI, Bollinger Bands, and MACD then you would have bought on August 14th or 15th at around $7.00 per share.
 
Disclosure: I don't own Safebulkers yet because I'm paying down some debts.  That is using all my free cash flow, but it pains me to miss this opportunity.  I believe that the next crash of the stock market will take Safebulkers down with it and present more buying opportunities.
 
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Analysis of Safe Bulkers (SB) 2nd Quarter Results

Safe Bulkers (SB) reported 2nd quarter financial results on Thursday July 21st, 2011.  Their board of directors declared a continuation of the $0.15 quarterly dividend.

http://bit.ly/SB2Q2011report 

The dividend is payable on or about August 31st, 2011 to shareholders of record at the close of trading of Safe Bulkers common stock on the NYSE on August 24th, 2011. Safe Bulkers has paid a $0.15 quarterly dividend since it's 2008 public offering.  They haven't established themselves as dividend growers, but the dividend yield of 8.3% is tremendous ($0.60 annual dividend / $7.21 share price).

Safe Bulkers dividend is still safe even in this horrible drybulk shipping market brought on by the global recession created by Keynesian central bank monetary expansion.  SB earned $0.27 per share this quarter and paid a $0.15 dividend.  The dividend payout ratio rose to 55.5% from 38.7% in 2010.  I don't like to see the dividend payout ratio to rise unless the dividend is increased.  But this increase in the dividend payout wouldn't worry me until it approaches 90%.  SB paid the same $0.60 annual dividend while earning an adjusted $1.55 in 2010.  The company conducted a 5 million share equity offering since 2010, so the $1.73 2010 EPS needed to be adjusted downward.

This year's annual earnings are on pace to be the lowest in the history of the company.  Safe Bulkers has earned an average of $1.90 per share over the past five years (adjusted for changes in capitalization due to share increases).  SB earned $0.41 in the first quarter of 2011.  It earned $0.27 this quarter.  Some faceless, nameless analysts expected earnings of $0.37 per share according to Reuters financial website.  Therefore, the financial press considered this quarter a earnings miss.  Let's assume that SB only earns 90% of it's 2nd quarter earnings in the 3rd and 4th quarters.    With these conservative assumptions the company would earn $1.16 per share.  This would bring the six year average EPS (adjusted) down to $1.84.  Safe Bulkers remains an extreme value stock trading at 3.92 average earnings including my hypothetical earnings estimates for the remainder of the year.  Consider buying SB below $22.08 per share (12 times average adjusted earnings).  Consider selling SB above $36.80 (20 times average adjusted earnings).  This high dividend stock is so cheap compared to other stocks!!

Coca-Cola (KO) trades at around 26 times average earnings.
Pfizer (PFE) trades at around 18.2 times average earnings.
Proctor & Gamble (PG) trades at around 16 times average earnings.

Safe Bulkers has 16 ships in it's operational fleet.  The fleet's average age is 4.4 years.  There are another 11 that will be added to the fleet over the next three years.  The company's average time charter equivalent (TCE) rate (think of as revenue per ship per day) was $27,921 in this quarter.  Estimated 2011 revenue = 16 ships x 361 operational days (99%) x $28,000 TCE = $160 million.  Only 23% of the fleet is rented out on the abysmal spot dry bulk market characterized by the Baltic Dry Index.  So only a small portion of SB's revenues are affected by the current market. Their fleet is contracted out at 59% in 2012 including the new ships joining the fleet.  If you are considering a purchase of Safe Bulkers, then you must monitor the Baltic Dry Index weekly (note: the BDI has taken a huge hit in the past three years due to the massive drop in the capesize rental prices.  Capesizes are the biggest ships.  SB owns very few of them, so the BDI can lose a larger percentage than SB's TCE in the same amount of time.)

Balance sheet (improving slightly)
Shareholder equity increased by $65.6 million.  Nearly $40 million of the additional equity came from the equity offering.

Companies with current ratios above 2.0 and a quick ratio above 1.0 are usually financially sound.  They have enough current assets to cover their current liabilities more the twice over.  The quick ratio measures cash on hand divided by current liabilities.  SB's current ratio dropped from 2.0 to 0.62 and their quick ratio dropped from 1.9 to 0.5.  The company's current ratio and quick ratio decreased due to spending money on advances to shipyards building their new ships.  These ratios should increase back to excellent levels once the new ships start producing revenues.

Conclusion: Safe Bulkers earnings miss will create an opportunity for high dividend stock investors who have done there homework to buy this excellent company at a low price.

Disclosure: I don't own Safe Bulkers, but I would like to.

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Safe Bulkers (SB) edges closer to a value buy opportunity

The Baltic Dry Index tracks the spot market dry bulk shipping rental rates.  The BDI has barely recovered from its January 2011 bottom.

http://bloom.bg/BDI_moves_lower

Traders/investors use the BDI as a barometer of global trade.  A lower BDI equates to a double dip recession in their minds.  Further erosion of the spot market will cause investors to sell dry bulk shipping stocks.  This will provide an opportunity to buy high dividend stocks like Safe Bulkers (SB) at a lower price.

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http://bit.ly/BDI2yearChart

Consider buying Safe Bulkers at or below $7.00.  Most of Safe Bulkers 16 ships are not contracted in the spot market.  They are in long term contracts between $20,000 and $30,000 per day.

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http://bit.ly/SB2yearChart

Please follow this link if you want to read my analysis in support of Safe Bulkers as a best dividend stock: http://bit.ly/SafeBulkers  Those articles cover its dividend record, earnings power, and its balance sheet.

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